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The Decline of Russia

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Russian economic recovery in the next 5 years

Very likely
Probably not
Russia is doomed
Total votes : 17
Post 24 Jan 2016, 20:21
As you may know, the Russian economy is entering a new phase of recession due to the decrease of oil prices (Russia is top 1 in world production). Do you believe that Russia will manage to recover in the next 5 years?
Post 24 Jan 2016, 21:03
If the liberal economic bloc in the current government is not replaced by something akin to the Primakov-Maslyukov government, Russia might 'be doomed', and all its plans to create some semblance of multipolarity in the world or to support anti-imperialist forces in places like Syria will likewise be doomed.

Many leftists had hoped in the aftermath of 2014 that Russia would see a shift away from neo-liberal recipes for economic development (which see Russia as a resource appendage for developed countries). Unfortunately, almost two years have passed, and that has not happened. As a result, there's an oddly tense situation today where support for the president is high, mainly for his actions in foreign policy, but pressures (caused by the oligarchic nature of Russian capitalism, corruption scandals - and lack of an effort to fight them, and the neo-liberal approach toward everything from monetary and credit policy to education and healthcare) are building up. In the past few months, some pessimist economists have gone so far as to suggest that the current government is dragging the country down into a hole from which something akin to war communism becomes the only option for saving the economy from total disintegration. Incidentally, with parliamentary elections scheduled for this year, and the country's economic reserves calculated to last until 2017, some of these same economists suggest that absent a turnaround in the global economic picture, Russia will once again find itself in a revolutionary situation on the 100th anniversary of October.
Post 24 Jan 2016, 23:04
I was going to vote probably not but I personally have a lot going on Russia staying afloat. In Lebanon my interests are being protected by Russian war planes.

Here in Nigeria the country is being hit the hardest by slumping oil prices partly thanks to Saudi Arabia, an enemy to my and Russia's interests in more ways than one. The Naira is currently devaluating to potentially catastrophic levels. The foreign exchange company I work for has lost $200,000 in the first few weeks since the start of the new year.

Some people I know are selling their houses that they've inherited from their parents, who before that inherited from their grandparents.

In the Ukraine, well I can't think of how things would change either way but Russia's demise certainly doesn't help things with the now politically inactive Communist Party; unless of course a renewed revolution takes place.

Hey Soviet, if reds guards do take over the Kremlin within the decade, don't forget to send them our way.

But I'm generally an optimistic man, and as the Pope always says "Even in our darkest hours, we must have faith."
Post 25 Jan 2016, 02:13
OP-B, you should have included the traditional "Other" option that all SE polls require.

I certainly don't believe Russia is "doomed", as nothing short of a catastrophic war with the West (or China) could wipe it off the map.

Economically speaking, Russia certainly has enough heft to force the rest of the world to come to some sort of terms in the long run.

Even the global warming phenomenon might work to Russia's advantage in years to come. Assuming everything doesn't end up underwater, the wealth of natural minerals and other resources that could be finally be uncovered might push Russia to the very top of the economic food chain.

Therefore, I will very cautiously vote that Russia will recover in 5 years or thereabouts.
Post 25 Jan 2016, 21:43
In other news, what's all this about?

Putin Says Still Likes Communist, Socialist Ideas

Socialist Ideas Correct, Poorly Implemented in Soviet Union - Putin

Putin: Lenin to Blame for Soviet Union Collapse

All in the space of less than a week. Make up your mind, Mr. President.
Post 27 Jan 2016, 08:01
Seems like an attempt to rehabilitate socialism from a nationalist perspective.
Post 27 Jan 2016, 08:39
Putin can restore a certain amount of European styled social health care while pursuing his Tsarist agenda. But he needs to make very clear to the Boyars on whose money his throne rests that he won't support or tolerate any form of Bolshevism in modern Russia.
Post 28 Jan 2016, 02:03
soviet78 wrote:
In other news, what's all this about?

Putin Says Still Likes Communist, Socialist Ideas

Socialist Ideas Correct, Poorly Implemented in Soviet Union - Putin

Putin: Lenin to Blame for Soviet Union Collapse

All in the space of less than a week. Make up your mind, Mr. President.

There are two possibilities:
- He's trying to reinforce his relations with the Communist Party for some unknown reason (avoiding a ukraine-like situation?). In this case, he isn't serious about him "liking" communist ideas. That's only a way to apologize for his statement against Lenin.
- He's serious, and that would make sense. Indeed, he didn't blamed Lenin for everything, only for the way he dealt with the national question. He might believe that Lenin should have built a nation-state instead of a federation of nations. He's probably closer to Stalin in this regard.
Post 02 Feb 2016, 18:11
I heard that the economic situation of Russia is very worse, but looking around the world, is there any country that didn't have any sign of economic crisis? In this era of globalization, if Russia economy goes bankrupted, then many countries in the world will be the same fate.

A sign of the capitalist system demise is that in the face of a new economic crash, they (USA, China, EU, Japan, Russia,...) even apply more and more neo-liberal policies in order to save their own ass. That only makes the crash come faster. A clear example was China, after one year of economic liberalization, what good it had done for China's economy, if not more crisis?

... I sincerely hope that 2017 will the doom year for the capitalists ...
Post 05 Feb 2016, 19:56
Profits from oil end up in the capitalists' pockets. But they are divided evenly under socialism. That is why Russia is doomed! No more hope!
Post 09 Feb 2016, 12:17
This anti-Russian blogger shows some pretty scary numbers coming from the RF
(use the translate function, it is in Czech)
Post 28 Mar 2016, 14:48
Some interesting articles from RT:

Increase demand from Russian arms. The Syrian campaign was apparently very profitable, as we could have expected. ... -campaign/

Russia won't have any more oil in 2044. I guess that those figures don't include the potential new discoveries in the Arctic, especially thanks to global warming. ... tion-2044/

Russia is deploying many troops in the Arctic and building some bases, so they are preparing for a potential conflict.

We are in a situation very close to WWI.
Post 02 May 2016, 02:30
Russians' living standards have decayed but not drastically, to the point where people are going hungry etc. like in the 90s or something.
Otherwise the entire Russian economy is around the size of - Spanish or Mexican one. So globally looking it's not really that important.
The falling Chinese growth rates could frag up the world economy more than anything else.
Its' quite sad that Russia, with all its resources and industry, is still behind even Croatia ( worst EU country aside from Romania and Bulgaria ) by pretty much every criteria.
Post 02 May 2016, 16:41
Loz wrote:
...Croatia is the worst EU country aside from Romania and Bulgaria.
I don't know man. A girlfriend of mine took a trip over there last summer and said that Croatia is a mighty fine place indeed. Maybe you oughta take a vacation to one of those mediterranean beach resorts you have down south.
Post 03 May 2016, 02:42
Croatia at least has a coastline and a tourist economy, which gives it a one up on other areas like the faux-Macedonia. In fact, I think Wheelie from this very site visited the city of Split, which is host to a ton of beach scenery and a whole bunch of Byzantine remains.
Post 03 May 2016, 23:20
Post 12 May 2016, 22:42
Russia will not recover under such a regime that they currently have.
Post 20 May 2016, 00:27
EdvardK wrote:
Russia will not recover under such a regime that they currently have.

The folks in my old country survived 400 years in the Tatar doghouse, an invasion by a really short French asshole, and two World Wars. The results of Gorbachev's treason have been hard on the country, but the bear lives on.
Post 23 May 2016, 06:05
While I am not writing from Russia there was AFAIK no recent collapse but rather a general decline. Unpleasant as it may be but nothing disastrous and not even coming close to calamities of the 90-ties.

Further IMO Russia will not collapse.

There are a number of reasons for this let me just point out a few.

Forex reserves are growing form the 350 USD billion low of last year reaching over 390 as of now.

Agricultural production is significantly up even if there are some issues in particular I have heard that cheese and sausage quality is not up to expectations.

The loss of the Ruble value which was in no small part due to the West’s attack on the currency, had some positive side effects, for example because of the unfavorable exchange rate Russians are travelling much less abroad and buy less western goods meaning less money flows out of the country – it is difficult for me to ascertain how much these savings are but they certainly have a role in stabilizing the situation.

Similarly some of the banking sanctions had a positive side effect too. Cutting off from Western banking loans means that the Russians incurres significantly less of additional external debt.

As a matter of fact and because of the reasons outlined above it seems that both capital outflow as well as external debt have recently fallen.

Therefore unless an unforeseeable catastrophe occurs expect signs of recovery during 2017.

Another thing is, that Russia could have done much more with sanctions giving impetus and justification for actions otherwise hard to justify.
Post 23 May 2016, 06:41
Sanctions and other symptoms of continuing Russophobia are Putin's bread and butter. The more the outside world distrusts and plots against him, the stronger his position is locally.
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