Will Putin send his tanks?

Do you think Russian tanks will be sent in Ukraine in case of civil war?

I vote yes. I think Putin will never accept a civil war next to his borders and would immediately send his tanks if the eastern regions were threatened.

Nop.
Maybe a war by proxy, by giving weapons to the south-eastern regions. But I don't think he'll actively intervene.

I doubt it.

I'm sure he'd covertly help the pro-Russian faction with funding, arming, and intelligence, but he's also smart enough to know actively sending in the military would be seen as a conquest by the West. Especially with all the press focused on Ukraine right now, and with the US retaliating with a "police action" over events in South Ossetia six years ago which were much less publicized until Russia's intervention. He has nothing to gain from World War III.

Putin will arm the pro-Russian faction and send "observers" and "advisers", but I seriously doubt he'll intervene directly. If he can keep the war going long enough that both sides agree to a stalemate and peaceful separation, he would be the direct benefactor of an eastern Ukrainian "Anschluss" with the RF.

Polls require an Other option. Which is what I would have voted because Putin won't invade until someone else does.

Putin sending in the tanks would be too extreme an action and be seen as an escapade of Cold War tactics by the West. As others have said, he'd support the pro-Russia faction. If there is war it won't go on for too long before an armistice is called for. Putin will be a key player in the talks for peace.

Quote:

Polls require an Other option. Which is what I would have voted because Putin won't invade until someone else does.

Then you just have to answer the question: will someone else invade? If you think no, vote no. If you think yes, vote yes.

No, other than Sevastopol where the crowd kicked out the Kiev-appointed mayor, electing a Russian citizen who pledged to protect the city from nationalists, and calling for Regions Party and CPU deputies to resign, there haven't really been any major anti-nationalism in the East and South other than people not letting Lenin statues get knocked down while the spineless mayors and governors pledge allegiance to their new masters. The national government is bankrupt, but the EU is apparently preparing a €20 billion bailout package in exchange for austerity and an association agreement. So we will have to wait and see what happens when default or austerity happens and Ukrainians of all ethnic and ideological backgrounds see that Europe isn't all peaches.

I would have voted no without even looking, but "in case of a civil war" is a bit different. I don't see an all-out civil war occurring, though, at least not on the short term. But I may be wrong. People in the south and east may be unhappy about the coup regime, but what they will do about it depends. Maybe the coup government can send in the newly constituted Freedom Berkut (TM) against the secessionists and the guys patrolling around Lenin statues?

Anyway, the dynamic obviously changes if they crack down heavily on Russians and Russian speakers, if they hurt Russian interests (e.g. the Black Sea Fleet), if they try to bring the eastern and southern regions to heel by force, etc. Then we're obviously not even talking about "Putin sending in the tanks against the Maidan" and similar suggestive bullshit hypotheticals we've been hearing from US and UK representatives, but about self-defence, defence of one's own citizens abroad, etc. But why would they let it come to this? There is still the €15b loan to consider, the cheap gas deals, etc.

Ah the fig-leaf of we are only protecting our interests and our citizens, so we are going to invade this country and plunder it’s resources. Why can’t the imperialists just be honest?

No 14 wrote:

But why would they let it come to this? There is still the €15b loan to consider, the cheap gas deals, etc.

Because these people do not follow logic or common sense that's why. Them banning Russian as an official regional language goes to prove just how small minded fascists and ultra nationalists are. As long as they are free from Russian "imperialism" they don't care about the negative consequences. History is full of idiot fascists. There is no difference between fascism and ignorance.

Latvia ruled out Russian as an official language only a few years ago, despite there being so many Russians living there, if you recall. If the West-backed Ukraine follows this path they are saying the people of Eastern Ukraine are illegitimate citizens, that they have no right to be heard in their own language.
It's amusing that it's EU legislation that says you have the right to be heard in court, by the police, any dealings with the state, in your own language - no matter the cost finding someone in, say, Estonia who speaks Danish, and yet these protestors want to reduce the dignity of many people who were born in the country, who didn't choose to live there...but were born there and consider the East their home. It's a great irony that may play out, Yeqon.

Yeqon wrote:

Because these people do not follow logic or common sense that's why. Them banning Russian as an official regional language goes to prove just how small minded fascists and ultra nationalists are. As long as they are free from Russian "imperialism" they don't care about the negative consequences. History is full of idiot fascists. There is no difference between fascism and ignorance.

I am on the floor at this! Stop it, you are aware that in the old USSR, Russian was the lingua franca and all other languagues were suppressed as the Russian language was superior to all others!

History is full of idiot Stalinists too. There is a world of difference between fascism and ignorance. What on earth are you going on about man?
Go and speak to the people in Poland, East Berlin etc and ask them if they are happy to be free of Russian imperalism, the answer is yes!

Yami...go play with your toys...

Yeqon wrote:

Yami...go play with your toys...

Ok, anything else you want to add?

Yami you are wrong.

If anything the USSR was ridiculously tolerant of other languages and national flavoured pseudo culture.

They helped promote such to their own detriment ultimately by allowing seeds of Nationalism to avoid weeding and later they sadly bloomed.

The USSR had massive amounts of illiteracy after the fall of the Czars which they had to deal with.

In an ideal world a push for written and read Russian all over or the possibility of an international language like Esperanto to avoid any chauvanism should have occured.

Instead in vast efforts of time, resources and manpower local languages were propped up and converted to the written form more effectively than existed pre the Revolution and greater opportunities for social cohesion and united purpose were squandered.

http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/540 ... viet2.html

This however tells a different story.
Unless it’s all lies...revisionist lies, Comrade Stalin was a great guy!

Omni is right, the USSR has institutionalized regional languages, including some that had never been written, and allowed to learn it at school, print official documents in this language, and that was done in the historical boundaries of the Russian Empire. In comparison the French republic has fought for decades against regional languages, especially in the XIXth century when most of the French population was still ignorant of the French language.

OP, if you read the article I posted it will become clear that that Russian was promoted as the lingua franca of the USSR and was seen to be superior to other languages in the republic.