USSR invasion of NSDAP Germay 1945

Hello,

I have ran across some suggestions that the USSR was planning invasion of Germany aimed at 44 or 45. This did not take into account the german Operation Barbarossa. My question is if Hitler had not invaded the USSR in 1941 how likely was Stalin to invade in 44 or 45? Since Stalin in 37-8 had cut the heads off the USSR military. How ready would they have been? The west would not have launch the d-day in June of 44. The west only went ahead with the invasion of France cause of the Germany bulk of troops were tied up fighting in the east. Would Stalin have started a war with it ally I base this question on Stalins reaction to the news of hearing of the german invasion of 1941.

Some sources can site more if needed:
Teddy J. Uldricks. The Icebreaker Controversy: Did Stalin Plan to Attack Hitler? Slavic Review, Vol. 58, No. 3 (Autumn, 1999), pp. 626-643
Cynthia A. Roberts. "Planning for War: The Red Army and the Catastrophe of 1941" Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 47, No. 8 (Dec., 1995), pp. 1293-1326
Stalin: The First In-depth Biography Based on Explosive New Documents from Russia's Secret Archives, Anchor, (1997) ISBN 0-385-47954-9, pages 454-459
Jonathan Haslam (1997). "Soviet-German Relations and the Origins of the Second World War: The Jury Is Still Out". The Journal of Modern History 69 (4): 785–797

Edited cause of typo sry

If I had access to my books on Soviet planning in the 30s-40s I would furnish you with better examples.
If you have access to a decent library, you should be able to get hold of Eugene Zaleski's "Stalinist Planning for Economic Growth 1933-53," and Mark Harrison's "Soviet Planning in peace and War 1938-45," I will try my best here to remember what I can.
Barbarossa cut right into the middle of the Soviet plan for militarisation, however contingency plans were already in place by 1939 which specified that all workplaces, especially factories, should be prepared to work in a total war situation, either working or fighting. Engineering firms were prepared to completely recalibrate and retool machinery at a moment's notice for an immediate transfer to munitions or materiel production. If I also recall correctly, this was originally overseen by the Commissariat of Heavy Industry, as part of their mandate in wartime, until 1937 - then is became the responsibility of the government, as one of the branches of Sovnarkom. I suppose they also built plenty of KVs and T-34s up until June 1941.
The Zaleski is useful as it shows reams of raw economic data that charts the shift from civilian to military production from 1938 onwards, they weren't stupid. I shall probably be scanning the entire book this Summer, by popular demand, it seems .

It is extremely likely that Stalin was aiming to crush fascism once he had the ability to do so, there was absolutely nothing to be gained by moving soldiers West until Hitler started it. I know some would argue about the non-aggression pact as being "an alliance" with fascism, but that is simply not true and a poor insult thrown by people with no grasp of history or politics, so I pose to them - how could the transfer and reorganisation or industry have been organised with ease, considering the favourable outcomes, in the thick heat of war? Militarisation to counter the threat of fascism is the answer. How could a relatively new army, following the purges and unfamiliar with modern equipment, have thrashed both through Poland, the Baltics, East Prussia *and* Germany proper?
Good post by the way, it challenges received wisdom re: the course of the war and the intentions of Stalin.

That's nonsense propagated by neo-Nazi historians.
Thing is, the doctrine of the Red Army was based on offensive operations and the planners counted on the Army immediately taking the fight to enemy's lands in case of attack.

Thanks Erichs_Pastry_Chef. I will get those books soon. Its my personal belief that the USSR could not have launched attack til sometime in 1942. As Stalin was still moving troops westward. Even when G.K. Zhukov's two war games shown that the USSR was not ready in 1941(G. K. Zhukov. Vol 2, p. 83). 44-5 would be more realistic for invasoin as Stalin would have had the time to not only move all the factories eastward beyond the Urals and 3 to 4 years to field a better prepared army. This is based on the outcome of Zhukov's games and real events and the effects of Operation Barbarossa.

Loz wrote:

That's nonsense propagated by neo-Nazi historians.
Thing is, the doctrine of the Red Army was based on offensive operations and the planners counted on the Army immediately taking the fight to enemy's lands in case of attack.

That may have been their doctrine but the Red Army was not ready in 1941 as history has shown.

I have found only one or two sourcable statements that the USSR and Stalin were ready for invasion of Germany in1941. Mikhail Meltyukhov and Viktor Suvorov grossly overstated the readiness of the Red Army in 1941. As history has shown it took two years for the USSR to recover from Operation Barbarossa.

This comic attempt to justify Hitler invasion of USSR comes from a person who claims that Stalin had plans to conquer all Europe and not just Germany. His works don't have any source either. Enough said.

JAM wrote:

This comic attempt to justify Hitler invasion of USSR comes from a person who claims that Stalin had plans to conquer all Europe and not just Germany. His works don't have any source either. Enough said.

You must be refering to Mikhail Meltyukhov and Viktor Suvorov. I can care little about those authors they bring very little to this question. My only question here how ready was the red army to invade Germany not Europe 41. Which I have clearly statement I dont believe they were ready in 1941 But maybe in 1942 they could have been ready.

Now I will add a second part to this question. Організація Українських Націоналістів (OUN) fought both German and Russian Armies in the Ukraine. Would they have taken the stance with the Red Army as they did when the Germans invaded in 41. They reasons I ask are clear in 1943 they started fighting soviet troops in the Ukraine til 1956. Since they were not aligned to Germany or the USSR but fought for independent Ukraine. How much trouble would they have caused. And please just dont say the Red Army would have just came in and crushed them history shows they were a pain in Stalins side long after the war. But the outcome would still be the same for the OUN defeat after 15 years of fighting.

Andrew Wilson, The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation
John Armstrong (1963). Ukrainian Nationalism

Menor wrote:

You must be refering to Mikhail Meltyukhov and Viktor Suvorov. I can care little about those authors they bring very little to this question. My only question here how ready was the red army to invade Germany not Europe 41. Which I have clearly statement I dont believe they were ready in 1941 But maybe in 1942 they could have been ready.

Now I will add a second part to this question. Організація Українських Націоналістів (OUN) fought both German and Russian Armies in the Ukraine. Would they have taken the stance with the Red Army as they did when the Germans invaded in 41. They reasons I ask are clear in 1943 they started fighting soviet troops in the Ukraine til 1956. Since they were not aligned to Germany or the USSR but fought for independent Ukraine. How much trouble would they have caused. And please just dont say the Red Army would have just came in and crushed them history shows they were a pain in Stalins side long after the war. But the outcome would still be the same for the OUN defeat after 15 years of fighting.

Andrew Wilson, The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation
John Armstrong (1963). Ukrainian Nationalism

Yes, I was referring to Viktor Suvorov.

My opinion about this matter is very clear. Stalin knew that he would be invaded by a foreign power sooner or later, that is why he said: "We are 50 to 100 years behind the advanced countries. We must make good this gap in 10 years. Either we do it or they crush us". The escalation of the war by the Nazi Germany in the late 30's (dismemberment of Czechoslovakia, annexation of Austria) must have identified the foreign power that would attack USSR in Stalin mind. I think this was pretty clear to Stalin since all the german advances were always toward the east. However, Stalin needed time to rebuild the Red Army which was definitely not ready in 1939 to protect USSR from an invasion. That's why Stalin accepted Hitler Non-Agression Pact, just to buy some time to prepare its army before the unavoidable nazi invasion. Hitler always wanted to invade the USSR but he needed to neutralize the West first that is why he offered the Pact to Stalin.
In my opinion, the pact was a game between Hitler and Stalin to see who fools who. The fact is that Stalin thought that a nazi invasion would only occurred once Hitler had invaded Britain and controlled all the west before lauching an attack to the USSR. He may have predicted the attack for 1943 or 1944. The surprise came when Hitler decided to abandon its Britain plans and launch the invasion of USSR earlier than Stalin thought. The Red Army was not already prepared at the time and the germans took advantage of it.

Your question is if the Red Army was prepared to launch an invasion of Germany. Perhaps 2 or three years later as the recovering of the Red Army in 1943 proved to be extraordinary fast and powerful but again there is no evidence that Stalin ever planned to invade Germany. I don't have enough information to be more specific than this.

It's probably worth bearing in mind that while a lot of reforms, rearmaments and planning were happening before 41, it was the test of war that proved what ideas were good (doctrines of deep battle etc), and what ideas were terrible (a different tank for every use.. a common inter-war idea btw etc)

Of course that can be said for the German's as well.

There have been some really good replies thanks. I have learned some new info.