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Will Putin send his tanks?

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Will Putin send his tanks?

Yes
13
27%
No
29
60%
I don't know
6
13%
 
Total votes : 48
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Soviet cogitations: 1418
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
Party Member
Post 01 Mar 2014, 21:06
Kirov wrote:
The Ukrainian military is trying to keep it's head buried in the sand as deep as possible on this one.


What Ukrainian Military? I'm beginning to believe that the Ukrainian military is a big joke. Back when I was doing my medical infectious diseases residency in Kiev, every time there would be an outbreak of Chicken Pox or Measles in their barracks or whatever, the military would send their infected soldiers to the hospital where I worked at to be quarantined and treated. I remember the soldiers would give little gifts or "bribes" if you wish so that doctors would extend their stay in the hospital even after they were completely cured. Mind you this was an infectious diseases ward with a strict quarantined regime where patients were not allowed to leave the building and were not allowed to receive visitors until they were discharged from the hospital. They preferred to stay in hospital doing nothing for as long as possible rather than serve in the army. I'll admit that even I once prolonged two soldier's stay there for two weeks in exchange for $20. Later they gave me an extra $10 so they could bring in their laptops and play counter-strike. They really seemed to be having a ball. Oh the corruption I admit! Maybe there is something to this "revolution"!


Besides in my 11 years in Kiev never once did I hear something good about the Ukrainian military.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 21:54
This is great comrade Yeqon, you participated in the corruption and decay of the Ukrainian army and indirect defeat of Maïdan.


Have you heard about the Nazi nurse and her bullet in the neck?
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https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/438619010196713473/photo/1
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 01 Mar 2014, 22:09
I see that I'm the only person who voted "I don't know". Seems like a safe choice.


The image that I had in my mind of "Putin sending in the tanks" was also more along the lines of what people like Kerry, Obama, Hague, etc. and media analysts were talking about last week: that Russia was going to somehow occupy Ukraine and crush the Maidan Tiananmen-style. A total absurdity.

I did not discount the possibility of some sort of intervention in Crimea or the east, but it seemed unlikely to me. Now it's kind of a "That escalated quickly" situation. I expected to see the usual passivity from the easterners, who only had small "anti-Maidans" until recently. I guess they really feel threatened by the new situation. I hope they'll see sense and it doesn't devolve into bloodshed, but it is absolutely justified to resist Kiev's current course of action.
Soviet cogitations: 12389
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 18 Apr 2010, 04:44
Ideology: None
Philosophized
Post 01 Mar 2014, 22:31
Comrade Gulper, Middle Aged Pundit Of Plenitude wrote:
Putin will arm the pro-Russian faction and send "observers" and "advisers", but I seriously doubt he'll intervene directly. If he can keep the war going long enough that both sides agree to a stalemate and peaceful separation, he would be the direct benefactor of an eastern Ukrainian "Anschluss" with the RF.

Seems to me that I was fairly close on the money. I didn't expect that Putin would so blatantly just send in the tanks and claim the sandbox without any pretense. But the result is pretty much the same. There won't be any "civil war" in Ukraine, because no one wants to back Maidan, and there are no Chechens in the region for the U.N. (aka, U.S.) to arm.

On that last bit, the Boston bombing was the best piece of luck Putin could have had. It singlehandedly turned the opinion of the American public against the Chechens and any sympathy for their cause.
Miss Strangelove: "You feed giants laxatives so goblins can mine their poop before the gnomes get to it."
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
Party Member
Post 01 Mar 2014, 23:49
Ukrainian Navy flagship defects to Russia’s side – refuses to take orders from Kiev

Quote:
Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.

There has been conflicting information on where exactly the vessel is, but a Russian senator has confirmed to Izvestia daily that the frigate defected to the Russian side.

“Ukraine’s Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew’s flag,” Senator Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia daily.

He said the flagship is on its way back to the Black Sea after drills in the Mediterranean. “The crew has fulfilled the order by the chief commander of Ukraine’s armed forces Viktor Yanukovich,” he added.

The move comes after the Navy command resigned Friday. Self-appointed President Aleksandr Turchinov made Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky the new Navy Chief, a statement published on the President’s website Saturday said.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Prime Minister Ukraine’s self-imposed government, had earlier asked his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to let the frigate through the Bosporus strait, according to the Kiev Times. The ship captain and the head of Ukraine’s contingent in the operation, Rear Admiral Andrey Tarasov disobeyed orders from Kiev.

The Hetman Sahaidachny returns to Sevastopol, Crimea after taking part in a joint counter-piracy operation with NATO and the EU off the Horn of Africa, reported UNN on Friday, citing Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. On February 26, after crossing the Suez Canal, the ship entered the Mediterranean Sea and was expected to be in Sevastopol in early March.


This is the part where the new self appointed government goes:
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 23:53
Excellent news! This is the great Soviet Navy, and exactly what we could expect. Now the Ukrainian army might do the same or attempt a coup to restablish order and recover Ukrainian sovereignty.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 02 Mar 2014, 02:21
Yeqon wrote:
Besides in my 11 years in Kiev never once did I hear something good about the Ukrainian military.


Yeah, the Ukrainian military has shrunk in size 6 times since 1992 to the present size of 182,000. This video is really all you need to know about it.

For non-Russian speakers:

  • In 2012, the armed forces of Ukraine had 192,000 personnel (182k now, 122k planned for 2017). Since 1990 the personnel has been reduced by 500,000 people or 3.5 times.
  • It is the 27th largest army in the world, but it is also one of the most backwards. For example in 2010, Ukraine spent $5000 per serviceman. By comparison, Russia spent about $33,000, Poland about $55,000 and Slovakia over $60,000. 80% of the army budget is spent only on maintaining its personnel.
  • After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine had one of the most powerful armies in Europe by both technology and size. In 2012, it is considered one of the most backward in Europe. Unprepared for military tasks are 40% of armor and artillery, 70% of aviation and 70% of ships.
  • Because of low pay and lack of a social safety net, many highly qualified officers leave the army. At the average monthly wage in Ukraine at $330, a contractor enlistee earns $122 per month, and a lieutenant commanding a platoon about $183. 75,000 officers and contractor enlistees don't have a normal living situation. About 50,000 servicemen are on a waiting list for housing, 30% of whom have been waiting for over 10 years. Every year, about 4,000 people quit the army.
(I think army and military as a whole are used interchangeably here)

So yeah, if I were in the Ukrainian military, I would think about defecting too. Particularly because the previous minister of defense had a plan to shrink the military by 60,000 people in the next 4 years, firing 2-3 thousand officers every year, and the current "government" would probably do even worse with the coming austerity. That means several thousand officers losing their jobs AND getting bumped off the waiting list for housing. So since they probably never had animosity toward Russia, defecting and serving in a military that at least tries not to suck probably makes sense. A seemingly insane right-wing government whose thugs beat up cops and yell at and humiliate officials on both national TV and YouTube with no retribution probably doesn't help much either.

Oh also, Ukraine has declared a national mobilization of all military-age men. Also, the entire military procurement of Ukraine in 2013 was 5 KrAZ trucks.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
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Post 02 Mar 2014, 02:40
A very good and informative post Kirov! Now I definitely expect to see more defections in the near future. If the Russians capitalize on this with all their resources and wealth, then the possibility of seeing a 180° about-face in the Ukrainian situation becomes highly likely. OP is very right to say that a military coup would become a possibility. The military would be able to take the city back without much difficulty and restore order or at least guarantee fair elections where the fascists would have no place in.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 02 Mar 2014, 03:26
Well, there's the mobilization I mentioned above, though I probably edited it in while you were typing your post. I'm not sure what that is about, exactly, except a last-ditch attempt to fix the situation by a government that really can't do shit.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
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Post 02 Mar 2014, 03:43
Yes I missed the mobilization part. Still the government would need a lot of money to mobilize a competent and strong army. The soldiers they are trying to mobilize wont go into battle on hopes and dreams. Where are they going to get the funding on top of all the economic problems they're facing?

I think the government is really starting to sweat now. Their hasty and irresponsible dismantling of the security forces is starting to backfire. Come to think of it most of the decisions they took in Parliament is starting to backfire. It's only been several days since they took power and they're already starting to turn into a laughingstock.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 02 Mar 2014, 17:29
Yeqon wrote:
Ukrainian Navy flagship defects to Russia’s side – refuses to take orders from Kiev

This is the part where the new self appointed government goes:


Can't find a source on this other than RT so far. Makes me wonder. Although I can imagine that if they were actually ordered to fight the Russians, then they would avoid it if at all possible.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 02 Mar 2014, 18:22
Now they are speaking about 10 ships leaving Sevastopol. Ukrainian puppet government denies, but it's hard to lie if 10 ships have actually left their base.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
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Post 02 Mar 2014, 19:09
No 14 wrote:
Can't find a source on this other than RT so far. Makes me wonder.


There's no need for doubt comrades! No need whatsoever!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYQvVqB ... 4-overview


Yesterday Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky was appointed commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Navy by self-appointed President Aleksandr Turchinov. Today he swears allegiance to Crimea. That's how much the Ukrainian people respect decisions made by the new power in Kiev.

Can you guys say: LAUGHINGSTOCK?!
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 02 Mar 2014, 19:52
Yeah, the flagship thing turns out to have been made up. It's beginning to be difficult to follow the news now because of increasing amounts of disinformation by both sides.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
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Post 02 Mar 2014, 20:21
Why do you say the flagship story was fake? The Ukrainian Navy Chief just switched to the pro-Russian side further proving that it actually happened.


Quote:
Ukraine fires Navy Chief, launches treason case against him for refusing to fight Russians, surrendering Sevastopol HQ – Deputy Secretary of Security Council - euronews


The entire fleet has defected to the Russian side, not only the flagship.

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A newly-wed couple kisses near a statue of Lenin in the city of Simferopol, in the Crimea region.
Last edited by Yeqon on 02 Mar 2014, 20:43, edited 1 time in total.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Soviet cogitations: 3618
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 02 Mar 2014, 20:39
The Berezovsky thing can be true (indeed, there is video evidence for it), but that doesn't automatically mean that every ship will follow along. There is video evidence about Berezovsky, but for the frigate, there is only the words of the Russian senator. I would not discount the possibility entirely, though. Who in their right mind would want to go toe to toe against the Russians, even if they would follow orders to conduct a fratricidal war on behalf of a power-drunk government in Kiev.

Watching the ever reliable CNN right now, where the former UK ambassador to Ukraine is saying that "Putin has trumped up a reason for intervening by getting separatists to claim that they are under threat, just like they did in northern Georgia in 2008." Yes, strange that, that they felt threatened by everyday occurrences like peacekeepers being killed, hospitals being shelled and cluster munition used against shelters. Whatever were they thinking? Surely the Crimeans had nothing to fear from the new Ukrainian wing of freedumb and democracy.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Sep 2006, 22:05
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Philosophized
Post 02 Mar 2014, 20:53
Damn that's a revealing dress for a wedding. Pretty cool though.

I gotta say I'm surprised Putin actually went into Ukraine without foreign provocation. But then again we have literal fascists in control of Maiden and Kiev. I super didn't expect that the fascists would actually get so powerful.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 02 Mar 2014, 21:13
Quote:
I'm surprised Putin actually went into Ukraine without foreign provocation

That's why he did it. He knew the Americans could do nothing, and indeed they are just talking about economic sanctions. Economic sanctions against Russia?
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
Loz
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 06 Dec 2009, 23:17
Philosophized
Post 02 Mar 2014, 21:20
Now the EU and especially Poland and so on are very close to sending their own troops if the Maidanites call for them which could mean the start of a real civil war in Ukraine.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 02 Mar 2014, 21:55
Cute pictures: http://rt.com/news/ukraine-crimea-photos-tweets-434/

Something tells me that the soldiers aren't going to be cold and lonely tonight.
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