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Will Putin send his tanks?

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Will Putin send his tanks?

Yes
13
27%
No
29
60%
I don't know
6
13%
 
Total votes : 48
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 29 Aug 2014, 20:51
That's pretty interesting. I thought that they just liked his style of doing things, like the rebels who pretend to be Chechens to scare government forces. Speaking of which, here's some Chechens who went to the Donbass to go after a Georgian in the Ukrainian army who made some videos insulting them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPypQk8cl-E
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
Loz
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 06 Dec 2009, 23:17
Philosophized
Post 04 Sep 2014, 20:01
Do you have a semi-reliable casualties ( including equipment, planes etc. ) list for Kiev and/or the rebels?
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 05 Sep 2014, 02:57
Officially, Ukraine lost about 800 people in security forces in the war so far, but those numbers unofficially estimated to be closer to 8000-10000. Same thing for the rebels although they have not been having nearly as many losses with the series of encirclements in the past two weeks. If UN numbers are right, by this point there's probably 3000-4000 dead civilians as a result of the conflict.

For armored vehicles, artillery and MRLS, this site keeps track of the losses, but it's only what they have photo/video evidence of being detroyed or captured by the Rebels. This site keeps an up to date list of all confirmed aviation losses and the status of existing Ukrainian planes and helicopters, as well as discussion of proof pics and other forms of confirmation in the thread.

I really don't feel like translating/counting them right now, but maybe tomorrow.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 12 Jun 2006, 02:14
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 05 Sep 2014, 15:49
Here's a post about the losses and some analysis on the situation.
It seems another round is over. Boxers are back in their corners.
A ceasefire has been announced today. There's a possible 12 point agreement to be signed today between Ukraine and Novorosiya. There's been reports of DPR's troops already entering Mariupol, but I don't know if the city will be considered as taken or not once the ceasefire begins.


"Where Argentina goes, Latin America will go".
Leonid Brezhnev

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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 16 Dec 2011, 00:54
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Komsomol
Post 05 Sep 2014, 19:04
Is this Ceasefire to avoid the NATO excercises being rerouted to the East with Dummy Ammo being Swapped for Live Ammo?
"A shiny bauble from Capitalism is worthless when the cost is Children & the Elderly going hungry, The Infirm & Sick dying because of Greed & Education reduced to a token few to placate the masses with Illusions of freedom."
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 12 Jun 2006, 02:14
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Politburo
Post 05 Sep 2014, 19:26
Not really, the ceasefire for Ukraine is meant to stall while regrouping. Maybe wait till they join NATO and then try again.
They just can't deal with Novorosiya as it is.


"Where Argentina goes, Latin America will go".
Leonid Brezhnev

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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 16 Dec 2011, 00:54
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Komsomol
Post 06 Sep 2014, 21:17
Why are the SouthEast even agreeable to this then considering they lose their Current Advantageous Momentum?

Or is this all just Lipservice Agreement for PR whilst continuing Advances?
"A shiny bauble from Capitalism is worthless when the cost is Children & the Elderly going hungry, The Infirm & Sick dying because of Greed & Education reduced to a token few to placate the masses with Illusions of freedom."
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 07 Sep 2014, 10:08
They couldn't join NATO in this situation because they have no capable army, they don't have control over their whole territory and their state is threatened by far-right groups. Putin knew that if he didn't do anything, Ukraine would have joined NATO sooner or later. So he did everything he could to prevent that.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 16 Dec 2011, 00:54
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Komsomol
Post 08 Sep 2014, 04:03
I still don't see any boon to be had in agreeing to a Ceasefire with Kiev other than trying to appear reasonable.
"A shiny bauble from Capitalism is worthless when the cost is Children & the Elderly going hungry, The Infirm & Sick dying because of Greed & Education reduced to a token few to placate the masses with Illusions of freedom."
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 15 Nov 2012, 01:18
Komsomol
Post 09 Sep 2014, 08:58
Some anti-fascism downbass style.

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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 09 Sep 2014, 09:08
Everything is fine. The war isn't over and they might die on the frontline.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 08 Nov 2007, 06:31
Embalmed
Post 09 Sep 2014, 16:42
What's the writing say? And what's with the shwarze-sonne? Isn't that what Azov uses?
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 12 Jun 2006, 02:14
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Politburo
Post 09 Sep 2014, 16:57
The cease fire hangs by a thread. Kiev is not respecting it and the DPR and LPR might engage again.


"Where Argentina goes, Latin America will go".
Leonid Brezhnev

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Loz
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 06 Dec 2009, 23:17
Philosophized
Post 09 Sep 2014, 17:56
Quote:
What's the writing say? And what's with the shwarze-sonne? Isn't that what Azov uses?

It's called a kolovrat which is a sort of swastika popular Russian Nazis.

More on "antifascists" in Donbass:
http://t-s.kz/topic/51624-fashizm/




Quote:
The cease fire hangs by a thread. Kiev is not respecting it and the DPR and LPR might engage again.

You're behind the news. NR forces have been fighting off the Ukro offensive around Telmanovo for days now.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 10 Sep 2014, 01:18
Che Burashka wrote:
The cease fire hangs by a thread. Kiev is not respecting it and the DPR and LPR might engage again.


At this point I think it will hold for another week or so. Both sides have to reorganize, and frankly, even though most of Novorossia is against the ceasefire, they need it more than Ukraine right now. The Ukrainians were pulling a mass retreat and making an advance on all fronts would have overextended them and opened them up for encirclement. In addition, the "short term volunteers" are there for a limited time and them ending up encircled and captured would have made for a lot of bad press.

As for the geopolitical implications, I think the ceasefire did have some implications, other than the "delay" in new sanctions against Russia that were supposed to come in on Monday and affect all large companies. During the NATO summit, Ukraine was initially pledged "high-precision weapons," this was leaked to the press by one of Poroshenko's aides. However, after the ceasefire took effect and two days after the initial announcement, all five (IIRC) countries said that they never offered any such aid. Now there aren't really any "high-precision weapons" that NATO could give Ukraine which would be effective and which Ukraine doesn't already have. What it could have meant, however, is NATO airstrikes against rebel targets by request of the Ukrainian government, that would be legitimate (if Putin's "shadow army" can help rebels [even if it doesn't exist], NATO can help the regime) and not require UNSC authorization as it would be by Ukraine's request. And it's not like Putin can just supply S-400's to make that go away like with Assad.

As for the question of nationalists fighting on the side of a national liberation movement, if sans-culotte and Loz want to close the book, so to say, on the discussion in the videos thread, that's fine, but you will need to make some clear points to debate, because otherwise it's just a rehash of the previous discussions we had on this topic (including in this very thread) with 'uncomfortable' points that I made avoided.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 08 Nov 2007, 06:31
Embalmed
Post 10 Sep 2014, 04:16
I agree with Kirov, drawing a comparison between the volunteer Russian fascists who crossed the border and wider Ukrainian nationalism that infects basically every west Ukrainian political party is a false equivalency. One is institutionalized (a state actor), the other isn't. One was present in peacetime politics, the other wasn't. One side through separatism (or even federalization) will permanently resolve this national question, the other is nothing short of oppression in the name of 'unity' (more like privilege for the Galician political & historical position).

It is not Russian nationalism that drove Ukraine to civil war, it is the Banderist scum that tried to make the whole of Ukraine like Galicia. Which, as admirers of the Bolsheviks, we know is not possible without war. When the Communists attached Novorossia & Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR, it meant any injection of bourgeois (and especially Banderist) Ukrainian nationalism would destroy the whole project. During WW2 this was manageable (which is debatable), after soviet collapse it is not.

A bourgeois nation-state with old SSR borders is awkward. An openly nationalist bourgeois state with old SSR borders is artificial and creates a national question. For those people, this is an issue of national liberation and not to mention history. In the absence of communists, the nationalists fight to resolve it. Are we supposed to be surprised? Hell no, let those useful idiots put ultra-reactionary Ukrainian nationalism in its goddamn place. That is, no where near the historically non-Ukrainian areas of Crimea and Novorossia, ones as Communists we were generous enough to give them.

I sometimes wonder if Lenin and the bolsheviks would have gone through with Korenization the same way if they knew about things like the annexation of West Ukraine, WW2 in general (which kind of traumatized the USSR and put it face to face with nationalism that divides to this day, Azov flies the Wulfsangel after all), and of course Soviet collapse.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 10 Sep 2014, 05:41
Yeah, though it's also a factor of people choosing a side in a multidimensional conflict. There are ethnic Ukrainians fighting on the side of Novorossia, such as the commander in today's Kots and Steshin article who said that he wants to see 1939 Ukrainian borders restored because as you said, Galicia in post-Soviet Ukraine just doesn't work. Likewise there's Russian nazis from Russia who decided that the white race is on the side of Ukraine or whatever and fight in various Azovs and Dneprs (warning: Russian nazi site, via anonymizer so that they don't come back here).

I'm not a big expert on shit, but apparently national-socialists fight for Ukraine while white-priders fight for Russia, or maybe the other way around. In the case of Ukraine they are supported by various Rada parties (e.g. Svoboda) and presidential candidates (e.g. Lyashko), in the case of Russia, they are from various semi-underground groups such as RNE which split and was clamped down upon in the early 2000s (interestingly, Wikipedia says that even the Yandex.Money account they had to collect donations for Novorossia was frozen) and the Wotan Jugend thing I linked which gets their shit raided by cops pretty regularly with funny results, as I posted in the video thread a while ago.

The only notable connection to right-wing/nazi shit in Novorossia is Gubarev (who holds no official positions) - according to a bio of him, when he was 16 or 17 he joined RNE and then 18 or 19 when he became disillusioned with the goals of the organization and joined the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, which is a left-wing party that apparently maintains connections with the Communist Party of Cuba, the Syrian Ba'ath Party, Kurginyan's Essence of Time, and weird right-wing stuff in Russia and Serbia like Duginites. There was also Strelkov who used to be a monarchist and is now some sort of right-winger, but he had no ideological (or ethnic/religious/etc.) preference when it came to choosing the people who surround him, probably because he was never part of any political movement due to his career in the FSB.

To be honest, after looking up all this stuff, I'm willing to just pull a Zizek and say regarding people in this conflict "they're confused and just mourning the USSR," but I think this whole struggle will clear things up. In many ways it already has. For example, we learned that nazis, if they are not clamped down upon, will form the active vanguard of various Maidans, and later punitive battalions like Azov and through their participation in football hooliganism, shit like Odessa. They literally have no other purpose within their country. With leftists, from what I read, other than Kurginyan's people (whose relation to the left is itself very weird), most choose to fight in whatever unit is available, which is why sometimes you see Cossacks fly the Soviet flag like at the one LNR border crossing. There are also what you can call apolitical leftists, summarized by "VDV guy who is for the USSR," who are fighting for the idea but are not involved in the movement or politics in general outside of talking to drinking buddies and sometimes internet forums.

Honestly, I think if communists, nationalists, monarchists, Ukrainians, even pious Muslims, can join together in a conflict and not just not rip at each other's throats, but cooperate and coordinate actions on every level of command and execution, it's something much bigger than a "nazi civil war" even though there are nazis killing each other in it and it may be a sort of civil war for them (well even on that level it doesn't work because from what I understand, Ukrainian NS and WP nazis are united in this conflict unlike Russia's, so there are nazis who are in the same ideological camp killing each other, suggesting that other allegiances are at stake). The only political faction notably absent from all of this is liberals, who happen to pretty much all be on Kiev's side, in both Ukraine and Russia, together with that one branch of nazis. I guess there's also Islamists fighting for Ukraine, both Hizb-ut-Tahrir-aligned Crimean Tatars and the Ichkeria Chechen fugitives, but their total number is in the low hundreds, probably more Muslims fighting on the side or Novorossia right now.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 15 Nov 2012, 01:18
Komsomol
Post 11 Sep 2014, 21:56
Both sides are a magnet for nazis (among a whole list of other sorts of shit) because the latter feed from destruction and intra-class division (but mainly just want to be murderous pawns and satisfy both their sadistic and masochistic psychopathies); armies of reactionary times and conflicts are known to be a haven for people with синдром вахтёра, and a local imperialist conflict fueled by false tribal hatred is the perfect backdrop for their self-realisation. Otherwise they are irrelevant to the fighting agglomerations of local oligarchic clans supported by global imperialist centers. Analyzing the makeup of the groups of pawns fighting in the Donbabwe is about as much use as trying to make sense of the factions in the second Congo war. The reason why we don't see real organised political forces with real goals is precisely because it is a money clan-based conflict fueled by fake tribalism and manipulated by imperial powers; political individuals or groups can be no more than pawns, be they nazi or leftist.

Also, if the piglets win, Hohlostan will become an IMF colony, if the alco-downbasses win, it will become either become another Khanate in the CU, or, if they stop at "liberating" Donbabwe, another one of Putin's vassal enclaves, probably with a casino zone. The place will remain a white Congo until a proper revolution takes place in Russia and is exported there, just as in 1920; hence the only thing I want right now is to see nazis and donkeys with colorad-monarchist bands/petliurite bands kill as many of each other as possible to save others the trouble later.
Last edited by sans-culotte on 11 Sep 2014, 22:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 11 Sep 2014, 22:55
sans-culotte wrote:
Both sides are a magnet for nazis (among a whole list of other sorts of shit) because the latter feed from destruction and intra-class division (but mainly just want to be murderous pawns and satisfy both their sadistic and masochistic psychopathies); armies of reactionary times and conflicts are known to be a haven for people with синдром вахтёра, and a local imperialist conflict fueled by false tribal hatred is the perfect backdrop for their self-realisation.


Basically you just confirmed what I said, that the presence of nationalists on the side of Novorossia in the conflict is not enough to label it one way or another.

Quote:
Otherwise they are irrelevant to the fighting agglomerations of local oligarchic clans supported by global imperialist centers. Analyzing the makeup of the groups of pawns fighting in the Donbabwe is about as much use as trying to make sense of the factions in the second Congo war.


So you are too convinced of your theories and don't want to study the situation because it would endanger your worldview. Okay...
What oligarchs is Mozgovoy fighting for? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9k159Wms58

Quote:
Also, if the piglets win, Hohlostan will become an IMF colony, if the alco-downbasses win, it will become either become another Khanate in the CU, or, if they stop at "liberating" Donbabwe, another one of Putin's silly vassal enclaves. The place will remain a white Congo until a proper revolution takes place in Russia and is exported there, just as in 1920.


Look, I understand that in your VK public it's cool to use cynic misanthrope slang and post vatniks and salniks and whatever else, but this doesn't mean that you can get away with using it to back up your theories without them looking like not much more than a derivative meme. Despite what you would like to think, we still live in a unipolar world with a single power center. Like it or not, even Kremlin's elite is pro-Western and this conflict has driven it apart from the West, which in part is why we have the current shitty truce, as sanctions made Putin's cronies insecure (and as cruel as it may be, the Kremlin's strategy this whole time has been to contain the conflict to the Lugansk and Donetsk regions until at least December due to dealings with China and the CU).

However, Novorossia's victory in the conflict will drive Russia further away from the West and weaken the global imperialist system, while Ukraine's victory will not only make it an EU colony (it already is an IMF colony, much like Russia in the 90s) but also lead to a strengthening of the global imperialist system. The former leads to the possibility of a communist revolution in Russia, or at least one against the treacherous elites. The latter leads to a Manege Square "revolution" with Wotan Jugend, Navalny and the staff of TV Rain, which much of the Kremlin wouldn't mind that much anyway, (except maybe Surkov because he would be out of a job for a few months until they rehire him for his expertise in convincing people that the current state of things is fragging awesome) and a strengthening of the global imperialist system that can make you say goodbye to any sort of communist revolution for a good while as Russia would not even be a relevant place to do it in, much less one that would be able to export it somewhere.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 15 Nov 2012, 01:18
Komsomol
Post 11 Sep 2014, 23:36
Quote:
Basically you just confirmed what I said, that the presence of nationalists on the side of Novorossia in the conflict is not enough to label it one way or another.

Actually works both ways, it is now apparent that the nazis on the other side are cannon fodder for the Dnepropetrovsk-Kiev oligarch group.

Quote:
However, Novorossia's victory in the conflict will drive Russia further away from the West and weaken the global imperialist system, while Ukraine's victory will not only make it an EU colony (it already is an IMF colony, much like Russia in the 90s) but also lead to a strengthening of the global imperialist system. The former leads to the possibility of a communist revolution in Russia, or at least one against the treacherous elites. The latter leads to a Manege Square "revolution" with Wotan Jugend, Navalny and the staff of TV Rain, which much of the Kremlin wouldn't mind that much anyway, (except maybe Surkov because he would be out of a job for a few months until they rehire him for his expertise in convincing people that the current state of things is fragging awesome) and a strengthening of the global imperialist system that can make you say goodbye to any sort of communist revolution for a good while as Russia would not even be a relevant place to do it in, much less one that would be able to export it somewhere.

How exactly does a victory of the colorad infestation and the spread of Putin's puppets lead to any kind of revolution in Russia? Have you seen what the infestation of Crimea did to the ratings of our stability and of Putin? Neither of those scenarios have cause and effect linkage.

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So you are too convinced of your theories and don't want to study the situation because it would endanger your worldview. Okay...
What oligarchs is Mozgovoy fighting for?

What oligarch did Bosco Ntaganda fight for?

Quote:
Look, I understand that in your VK public it's cool to use cynic misanthrope slang and post vatniks and salniks and whatever else, but this doesn't mean that you can get away with using it to back up your theories without them looking like not much more than a derivative meme. Despite what you would like to think, we still live in a unipolar world with a single power center. Like it or not, even Kremlin's elite is pro-Western and this conflict has driven it apart from the West, which in part is why we have the current shitty truce, as sanctions made Putin's cronies insecure (and as cruel as it may be, the Kremlin's strategy this whole time has been to contain the conflict to the Lugansk and Donetsk regions until at least December due to dealings with China and the CU).

In other words, I can't say that dirty reactionary scum is dirty reactionary scum

Also, every stage of capitalism had a power center (Netherlands -> Britain -> US), that never meant the absence of other huge and not so huge centers within a hierarchy and with competing interests.
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