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Will Putin send his tanks?

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Will Putin send his tanks?

Yes
13
27%
No
29
60%
I don't know
6
13%
 
Total votes : 48
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User avatar
Soviet cogitations: 9249
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 21 Aug 2014, 13:50
soviet78 wrote:
So based on what you know the rebels will repel the Ukrainian army, or simply hold out against them indefinitely? And they will be able to hold on to both Donetsk and Lugansk?


There are two ways this can go, either the government mounts suicidal attacks on Donetsk and possibly Lugansk, and loses even more of its potential, which the government seems to want to do, or they retreat and build defensive strongholds around Slavyansi and Mariupol to contain Novorossia forces and prevent them from expanding northwest to Kharkov and southwest to Zaporozhye. We will probably see a mix of both though, as the people in power already made a lot of bad decisions with regards to the surrounding of Donetsk and will probably want to mount one more attack for political reasons.

An article on defensive stronghold plans (in Russian): http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1742185.html
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 21 Aug 2014, 20:33
They could as well try to cut off rebel supply lines. The situation looks quite bad for our friends, as they are clearly outnumbered. I don't feel much confident about the situation.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 21 Aug 2014, 22:59
They did for about two weeks, but the government troops were surrounded and eliminated. Steshin reported that all pockets are now essentially gone and the road to Donetsk is completely open.

Here is a map of what it looks like today: http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivan ... 25_900.jpg

And here is one from one of the most difficult parts of the conflict, 10 days ago: http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivan ... 68_900.jpg

Also, the government reportedly lost a Mig-29 and 2 Mi-24s near Lugansk yesterday, and a Su-24 today, apparently because they had to rely on national guard and the 80th brigade after withdrawing most of the 17th tank brigade for an offensive on Donetsk.

Currently the rebels are working to counter-attack at Amvrosievka in the south and surround the government forces south of Donetsk. The highway from the Russian border to Donetsk is basically littered with destroyed Ukrainian military hardware now.

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In somewhat amusing news, on August 24, Ukraine's Independence Day, the rebels have an idea of doing a counter-parade to the one in Kiev, but instead of military hardware parading Ukrainian POWs in the style of Moscow's parade on July 17 1944.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Soviet cogitations: 2293
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 22 Aug 2014, 19:23
This is very good then, it implies that Kiev's plan failed as they couldn't cut our friends from the Russian border. Now if Putin is sending hidden tanks in his humanitarian convoy, everything is for the best. Excellent maps.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
Loz
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 06 Dec 2009, 23:17
Philosophized
Post 23 Aug 2014, 05:01
Why is the Ukro cauldron around Lugansk airport still holding and even starting offensives? How come they haven't all starved to death since they've been in the encirclement for weeks and maybe even months ( the airport ) now?
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 23 Aug 2014, 17:19
They're in "operational encirclement" where their positions are surrounded, but they can still get supplies through. It wasn't until this week that the Lugansk group started retaking settlements and towns to the northwest of the city, attacking Schastye and Metallist, which can actually close the gap. From what I understand, there are issues for the rebels with not having enough fighters and hardware to really surround the group and break it up,as they don't want to let the brigade out either because if it exfiltrates, there will be an army presence in the north as well and not just national guard and shit.

I have a feeling that they have some arrangements for local ceasefires too, because the aid convoy reportedly made it through Ukrainian army-controlled positions with no incident.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Soviet cogitations: 2293
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 23 Aug 2014, 17:35
Sun Tsu said that if you want to break an enemy you have to let him a way to escape, otherwise he will fight to death.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 23 Aug 2014, 19:31
They seem to be pretty okay with the idea. Also, a Serb and a Frenchman in the interbrigade: http://vk.com/1st_international_brigade ... 169677_604
Image

"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 23 Aug 2014, 19:41
Kirov wrote:
They're in "operational encirclement" where their positions are surrounded, but they can still get supplies through. It wasn't until this week that the Lugansk group started retaking settlements and towns to the northwest of the city, attacking Schastye and Metallist, which can actually close the gap. From what I understand, there are issues for the rebels with not having enough fighters and hardware to really surround the group and break it up,as they don't want to let the brigade out either because if it exfiltrates, there will be an army presence in the north as well and not just national guard and shit.

I have a feeling that they have some arrangements for local ceasefires too, because the aid convoy reportedly made it through Ukrainian army-controlled positions with no incident.


I suppose the equipment, logistics, and manpower situation on both sides is such that they can't really get into the high-level blitzkrieg stuff. I would guess that's why you get these rebel maps that Kirov posted and these maps that the junta make every day, where they both show themselves constantly pocketing each other or cutting each other off, and they could both be correct.

On the rebels' map, the rebel area of control is one big blob, on the pro-junta maps, they're not, but at least they now admit that the DPR-LPR zones are still linked around the MH17 site, whereas previously they were "cut off" and Donetsk city was "about to be liberated", blah blah blah. Speaking of MH17, has there been any fighting there? Haven't heard anything about that in what feels like decades (1-2 weeks in reality, I think). Anyway, it all depends on how you define "control" and how you draw the blob on the map as a result.

As for how the convoy got through, I thought that Kiev just denounced it, but that they had already promised not to hit it. The rebels did say that they would set up security roadblocks along the route, wherever that may be on the map: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/746293 What's interesting is that the article mentions Ukrainian customs officers. Surely with the border zone in control of the rebels, and the borders being so porous, they're pretty much out of a job in terms of guarding the border for the Ukrainian government?
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Soviet cogitations: 2293
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 23 Aug 2014, 19:47
Kirov wrote:
They seem to be pretty okay with the idea. Also, a Serb and a Frenchman in the interbrigade: http://vk.com/1st_international_brigade ... 169677_604

Is it the nazbol interbrigade?
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 25 Aug 2014, 00:56
No, it's some other thingy.

To wrap up August 24th, which is now and forever to be known as Ukrainian National Butthurt day, the rebels encircled Amvrosievka.

Image


The cauldron contains up to 4000 Ukrainian troops including national guard battalions Azov and Donbass as well as up to 200 military vehicles. There are also news that the offensive has made it as far as Novoazovsk, which is on the coast, but I don't know at the moment how that is going. There is also progress in the north and northwest.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
Loz
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 06 Dec 2009, 23:17
Philosophized
Post 27 Aug 2014, 05:56
What was the point of Newrussia adopting a new Tzarist-inspired flag instead of the popular and cool-looking "rebel" one?
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 27 Aug 2014, 13:28
I thought that I already answered this question.


It was a recommendation by Tsarev's group, the flag was not changed. Also, it's some sort of upside-down version of the Tsarist flag, not the Tsarist flag itself. I dunno.

Also, Novorossia forces have apparently taken Sedovo on the Azov Sea. Gubarev and Zakharchenko both said in recent statements that Novorossia will expand beyond the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts.

Here's a map of what's going on because there is pretty much an information blackout by the rebels right now, so not a lot of vids and stuff. High-res on click.

Image
Image

"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 27 Aug 2014, 14:57
Also Novoazovsk was apparently taken, as Ukrainian forces retreated to mount a defense of Mariupol.
Image

"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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User avatar
Soviet cogitations: 3618
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 28 Aug 2014, 08:07
A more credible map:

Image
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 28 Aug 2014, 19:41
According to NATO, I won.
Image

"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 28 Aug 2014, 23:40
So, reports say that rebels now control parts of the highway west of Mariupol. Also, Putin told rebels to treat encircled regime forces with extreme brutality.

OP-Bagration wrote:
According to NATO, I won.


Yeah, but who are you gonna believe?
Image

"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 29 Aug 2014, 16:46
Some slightly weird news from today. This is about the destruction of two groups sent by the leader of the Donbas Battalion, "Semen Semenchenko" to break the rest of the battalion out of encirclement and defend Novoazovsk.

Quote:
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Meanwhile, as it became known version of the portal AnAgA from sources at the scene, the two assault groups were ambushed. And only the first of them was directed to Ilovaysk - its task was not complete liberation of the city that in the current environment for Ukrainian forces is no longer possible, but the blockade remains of Kherson battalion commander whose ensign Storcheus ignominiously died, running away from his subordinates. To accomplish this task, this group is still too late, as all the so-called battalion, consisting of 50 people, in full destroyed by the militia. Only 12 butchers managed to escape, who surrendered to the headquarters of the battalion "Oplot." After asking for their participation in the killings of civilians, the perpetrators will be convicted and the innocent sent back to their relatives.

The second group was directed to Novoazovsk but not reaching even to Mariupol, was intercepted by the Batko Makhno partisan unit, led by a commander with the callsign Nestor Ivanovich. This group is almost completely destroyed. Two survivors are giving statements, but their further fate is a big question. The first group, intercepted our diversionary-recon group on its way to Ilovaysk almost entirely captured. The only dead are the commander and one of his henchmen sergeants who tried to prevent the surrender of his subordinates, while wounding two soldiers. In one version of the officer and sergeant killed were killed by the surrendering soldiers themselves.


Source

Apparently it's a real unit that's based around Huliaypole, Zaporozhye Oblast, the home town of Makhno.


Hopefully it's not made up and they exist.

Also, it seems that rebels probably don't have the resources to feed, house and guard so many POWs, which is probably why Putin wants them. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8ae_1409308571
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Soviet cogitations: 5147
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 08 Nov 2007, 06:31
Embalmed
Post 29 Aug 2014, 19:16
Wait, are they actually anarchists? I don't understand why anyone who likes Makhno would associate themselves with the Donbass rebels, although I'm sure they have no love for the Ukrainian nationalists either.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 29 Aug 2014, 20:13
I have heard already about this group of anarchists, so I believe that they are actual anarchists. They probably understand that the Kievan fascists are the bigger threat.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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