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Will Putin send his tanks?

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Will Putin send his tanks?

Yes
13
27%
No
29
60%
I don't know
6
13%
 
Total votes : 48
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Soviet cogitations: 2298
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 27 Feb 2014, 12:33
Well that's a metaphora to speak about a military intervention, but a BTR can be considered as a light tank.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 27 Feb 2014, 15:14
Yami wrote:
Ah the fig-leaf of we are only protecting our interests and our citizens, so we are going to invade this country and plunder it’s resources. Why can’t the imperialists just be honest?


What resources? Anyway, if (and that's a big 'if') the new order in Kiev violently tries to bring the Crimea to heel and suppress the Russian population, then of course Russia cannot just sit by and allow the slaughter of her citizens, the persecution of her language, and the expulsion of her fleet. And if the neo-nazis can do what they've done in Kiev so far, then of course the Crimeans have the right to rebel and seek their self-determination.

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It's on.
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Soviet cogitations: 4501
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 27 Feb 2014, 15:23
You're obviously very well informed and know this, No.14, but the Second World War issue really does seem to drive most of the passion from the anti-Maidan side, precisely because they reject the fascist interpretation of what that war was about. The 'we freed our nation from fascist filth 70 years ago, and won't allow it to pass today' line really seems to have a powerful effect in the east. Of course the behaviour of the Maidan demonstrators only confirms everyone's suspicions that this really is a situation of fascist revanche. Hence the Georgievskaya Ribbon is truly, truly fitting here.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
Soviet cogitations: 304
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 05 Feb 2014, 00:36
Komsomol
Post 27 Feb 2014, 15:36
soviet78 wrote:
You're obviously very well informed and know this, No.14, but the Second World War issue really does seem to drive most of the passion from the anti-Maidan side, precisely because they reject the fascist interpretation of what that war was about. The 'we freed our nation from fascist filth 70 years ago, and won't allow it to pass today' line really seems to have a powerful effect in the east. Of course the behaviour of the Maidan demonstrators only confirms everyone's suspicions that this really is a situation of fascist revanche. Hence the Georgievskaya Ribbon is truly, truly fitting here.


As it ought to.

The fascist line currently promulgated about "muh freedoms" from ebul Russia is disgusting. Indeed, I'm surprised the anti-Maidaners have been so restrained thus far; if I was one of them I'd probably want blood at the current moment seeing what these people are doing to our country.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 15 Nov 2012, 01:18
Komsomol
Post 28 Feb 2014, 14:52
He doesn't need to, the the Crimean "bottle" can never be taken by Ukraine, it's a death trap. There are enough Crimean berkut fighters and civil volunteers to hold the narrow passages into Crimea.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 28 Feb 2014, 23:55
Well, now that Crimea has been taken over and Ukraine's Navy/floating rust has been taken over as well because it is also , I guess we can say... kind of? Tanks are completely useless there because there are no other tanks in Crimea, and there is a supportive population.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 00:17
According to Liberation's correspondent, Sébastien Gobert, around twenty Russian Army vehicles including armoured vehicles (probably BMPs or BTRs) have arrived in Simferopol this afternoon.

I think I will be right against all of you, if I didn't won already.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
Soviet cogitations: 12389
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 18 Apr 2010, 04:44
Ideology: None
Philosophized
Post 01 Mar 2014, 00:42
Will Putin take all of Ukraine or only the East? Does it make sense for him to stop at the ethnic boundary (so to speak) and leave the rump to Poland? Or does he take it all for himself?
Miss Strangelove: "You feed giants laxatives so goblins can mine their poop before the gnomes get to it."
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Soviet cogitations: 2298
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 00:45
Actually I was right. You failed.


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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
Loz
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 06 Dec 2009, 23:17
Philosophized
Post 01 Mar 2014, 01:28
How do you know that's the army of the Russian Federation and not the rebelling pro-Russian Ukrainian army units?
Soviet cogitations: 12389
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 18 Apr 2010, 04:44
Ideology: None
Philosophized
Post 01 Mar 2014, 01:45
Well, for a start, why do all the armored vehicles have Russian and not Ukrainian insignia? None of them have Soviet insignia, which means they aren't left over from the old days.
Miss Strangelove: "You feed giants laxatives so goblins can mine their poop before the gnomes get to it."
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 02:25
Yes, moreover the equipment is too modern to be from Ukrainian military. Not that Ukraine can't have modern equipment, but Russia wouldn't have tolerated strong military units to be stationed next to its own base

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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 22 Oct 2004, 15:15
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 01 Mar 2014, 12:07
Well, I'm happy to be wrong here. Things are going faster than I thought. I do still wonder if it's going to remain a limited intervention, where a small contingent simply sits there to prevent a crackdown by Kiev and bring them to the negotiating table, or if they're aiming at enforcing a referendum to turn the Crimea into the latest South Ossetia. Also, what is going to happen to the rest of the east?

In any case, the intervention is timely, if we are to believe the Russian FM's report that "unknown gunmen" sent from Kiev tried to take over the Interior Ministry of the Crimea. It seems clear to me that the mechanisms for this sort of intervention had been in place on both sides for a while: the Crimean militia who held the Simferopol airport were apparently expecting to find Ukrainian troops. And now an actual Ukrainian squad has apparently tried to take over the Ministry. The Crimean squad who took over the parliament were also too well-organised and armed.

It seems that the Russians and Crimeans were just quicker on the ball, taking action after a few days of silence in Kiev, and protests in the Crimea. It's pretty good timing and can be chalked up as a successful "pre-emptive" action, given the apparent failed attack on the Interior Ministry.

In the meantime, Yanukovych is calling for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but with autonomy for the Crimea, without calling for Russian intervention. Is anyone still going to listen to this clown? Or will Russia try to enforce such a state as well, not because of Yanukovych, but in order to guarantee a stable Ukraine that they can still do business with? The statements of the Crimean PM and the butthurt of Obama and Yatsenyuk seem to indicate that it might be too late for that.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 12:26
They went too far to step back, I don't think they would go further unless the situation worsen in the East, but if they can enforce Crimea's independance, they will do it. Since they lost Ukraine to NATO, securing Crimea is important strategically. The last possibility is that they are trying to provoke a reaction from the Ukrainian army that would result in a coup.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 01 Mar 2014, 12:54
No one is officially claiming it was Russians though, including all Ukrainian outlets. To be honest, I think this is largely the Ukrainian military covering their ass because there is nothing they can do about this. I guess they just have the same uniforms, equipment and weapons as the Russian army and use professional tactics, but without a Velcro tag that says "Russia" on their sleeve we can only assume that they are from an underground Crimean militia. See what I wrote in the current events thread. Also all the trucks and BTRs just happen to have Russian military license plates on them. Too bad that there's no Ukrainian military bases in Crimean to disprove that theory, except the headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy in Sevastopol, which the unknown gunmen seem to have occupied too.

Man, Op-B's dick must be so hard right now
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 13:11
Quote:
No one is officially claiming it was Russians though


Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Finally got some mystery camo guys to identify themselves. Russian 810 marine brigade out of Sevastopol. "We're just here to help."

"PRO-RUSSIA PREMIER OF UKRAINE’S CRIMEA REGION SAYS RUSSIAN BLACK SEA FLEET SERVICEMEN ARE GUARDING SOME IMPORTANT BUILDINGS IN CRIMEA - INTERFAX"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/01/crimea-crisis-deepens-as-russia-and-ukraine-ready-forces-live-updates
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
User avatar
Soviet cogitations: 2298
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 15:48
"Russian parliament approves use of military against Ukraine"- "Putin ask for right to use armed forces in Ukraine. "

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/01/crimea-crisis-deepens-as-russia-and-ukraine-ready-forces-live-updates

So this is the beginning. Funny to see that one more person voted "no" even though it was clear that Putin already sent his tanks in Crimea. That's a proof that people are often blinded by their own beliefs. That's almost frightening to see that I was the only one voting yes.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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Soviet cogitations: 1418
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
Party Member
Post 01 Mar 2014, 20:00
OP-Bagration wrote:
That's a proof that people are often blinded by their own beliefs. That's almost frightening to see that I was the only one voting yes.


Well I can only honestly speak for myself when I say that I had the image of tanks rolling in from the east into eastern Ukraine when I answered no. I guess it can also be argued that his troops in the Crimea are more special ops and security; not actual tanks that would be used like in a full out ground invasion. It could also be argued that the Crimea was never 100% Ukrainian if you know what I mean.

There is also Putin's political image to consider. What kind of Russian leader would he be if he didn't protect ethnic Russians especially when they are the majority population. I don't think Putin sending in troops to the Crimea was ever really in doubt, especially when he can do it without acknowledging it officially and especially when they come in the form of security peacekeepers and not as invaders.

Sending troops into mainland Ukraine is a little tricky in my opinion. There would be severe backlash from the west. Would Putin be able to handle the pressure? Since then of course things have changed and the latest vote in Russian parliament proves that OP might turn out to be the only one right in the end. I have to admit I didn't think Russia would openly admit or even vote in favor of sending in their military. From a political point of view I thought it would be easier to send in troops covertly and still retain the position that Russia is not interfering. Nevertheless Crimea is a special case.

With the recent developments I now change my vote to "I don't know". The nuclear facilities question in the Ukraine was one I had not anticipated. With the recent threats some Ukrainians are making about going nuclear again, a larger Russian invasion becomes more of a possibility. Now I'm expecting something like Russian special military forces to deploy where the nuclear facilities are. That would make sense to me more than a ground invasion into eastern Ukraine. I honestly would be quite shocked if tanks were to roll into eastern Ukraine even if all of the Eastern regions supported something like that.

On the other side of the topic the newly formed Ukrainian government is now beginning to realize their impotence in achieving anything positive. Yatsenyuk first makes a speech saying that Ukraine will achieve EU membership and a visa free regime within Europe and then openly admits that anyone looking to join the new government is committing political suicide knowing fully well the hard days that Ukraine will be facing as a direct result of their pointless revolution. Their futile attempts at anything will probably lead to the western Ukrainian masses accusing them of betraying their revolution. Here comes austerity measures! Klitschko and Tymoshenko look like they've chickened out of politics already.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 01 Mar 2014, 20:21
At the same time, it doesn't seem like the invasion has had any impact on the pro-Russian sentiment in east and south Ukraine. 10,000 people in Donetsk and 30,000 people in Kharkov protested the Maidan government and took over their city and regional administration today. In Kharkov, where the administration was already occupied by Euromaidan activists, protesters, as well as armed activists forced them out, leading to 93 injuries. So it's possible that these will be the next places where the Russian military goes in. I don't know about tanks though, the Ukrainian military is trying to keep it's head buried in the sand as deep as possible on this one.

Similar protests with demands ranging from federalization to secession took place in Odessa (20,000), Nikolaev (2,000), Kherson (400), Zaporozhye (500), Lugansk ("several thousand") and Dnepropetrovsk (~3,000), where Right Sector occupied the admin building to protect it from the Antimaidan. Because Putin said that Russia will respond to requests for help from governments in Ukraine, this may mean a larger scale occupation. It hasn't been very violent yet, but all it can take is one provocation with one wannabe martyr who pulls a gun on a soldier for it to descend into shit.
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Soviet cogitations: 2298
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 10 Aug 2010, 14:21
Party Bureaucrat
Post 01 Mar 2014, 20:50
Protests in Odessa too. If Russia send troops in the other regions, they will send tanks because you never send infantry without armour, as they did in Crimea with BMPs and BTRs, and if they send light tanks, they will also send a few heavy tanks to cover them against a potential Ukrainian counter-attack.
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"Fishing is part of agriculture" Gred
"Loz, you are like me" Yami
"I am one of the better read Marxists on this site" Gred
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