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Trump will be reelected unless...

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Soviet cogitations: 4501
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 19 Aug 2020, 21:08
Hey guys, I just wanted to vent somewhere on what I think's going to happen in November. Based on how things are looking today, I think Trump is going to win a second term, unless he has a major medical emergency or is assassinated.

I base this conclusion on several things:

1) Among all the people the Democrats could have selected to run against him, they picked the guy from Tales from the Cryptkeeper, plus a black woman proud of her record of putting minorities in jail on drug crimes. That can't be good for exciting the base.

2) The coronavirus hasn't given Trump a chance to run Reagan 1984-style 'It's morning again in America' ads, and has illuminated the massive systemic inequalities facing US society, ranging from the threat of mass evictions to more and more people being denied the opportunity to receive proper medical treatment. But again, despite agreeing to spend trillions propping up banks and corporations, the Democrats haven't proposed any big positive changes that independents in the swing states may support at a time of crisis - such as health care, UBI, etc, to set themselves apart from the Republicans.

3) Most national polling gives Biden a 4-10 point lead over Trump https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html . However, in the final days before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton also had a 3-6 point lead and still lost. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5491.html because national polls don't mean anything under an Electoral College system.

4) I think a lot of young potential blue progressive voters are going to stay at home/vote third party again this time due to the shabby way Bernie was treated during early primary voting, and the cringe-worthy way that he ended up endorsing Biden without getting almost any of his major platform issues (health care, student debt) through. This point is admittedly weaker, since if the Democrats did pick Bernie or ran with more of his ideas, the Republicans could have influenced more independents to believe that the Dems want to destroy the country using the socialism bogeyman. They're doing that anyway even now.

5) Unless Trump has a stroke or some other major medical issue, he is going to crush Biden in the debates. Again, the idea of the Democrats picking a senile old man who's visibly suffering from early signs of dementia is an astounding testament to the failure of their system of picking candidates. The fact that Trump is going around bragging about how he 'aced' his mental competency test is pretty hilarious in itself in the sense that it shows the absurdity of the current state of American politics. It's almost like something out of the GTA universe.

6) I think Trump's campaign may try to pull some type of last minute populist move to get undecided/libertarian/progressive voters on their side, like pardoning Snowden, or bringing troops home from some war.

7) I think the coronavirus situation has drowned out this issue, but that whole Hunter Biden Burisma business in Ukraine hasn't really gone anywhere, and there is now alleged audio of his phone conversations with Poroshenko to get the prosecutor investigating Burisma fired. I mean it's not that big a deal in the sense that everybody in politics engages in such corruption. On the other hand, the Democrats did try to impeach Trump for the exact same thing (a quid pro quo). And unlike Biden, Trump's crime was merely trying to dig up dirt on a political rival, not trying to cover up his own family's corrupt dealings.

Instead of fighting Trump on the substantive issues, the Democrats spent three years and all their energy calling him a Russian agent. Today that theory has all but collapsed and you have people from the FBI admitting that they altered evidence to make Trump's people look guilty. In politics there's such a thing as sympathy from the public for a candidate who is perceived as being attacked unfairly. So whether Trump is described as a Kremlin asset or being called 'the most racist president in history' (presumably even more racist than those who owned slaves) I think a huge opportunity was missed to attack him for real shortcomings, like nepotism, corruption, anti-environmentalism, someone that's damaging US alliances, or any one of a hundred other things.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 20 Aug 2020, 17:57
I don't think politics in the US is so much about one side "winning" per se as it is about maintaining a certain balance. When something has to be done quickly there is easy bipartisan support for it, like raising smoking age to 21, the war in Iraq, whatever. With something like healthcare reform there is a clear attempt to sabotage the more progressive things like government option because no one in the elite actually wants anything like that.

In that sense, elections in the US aren't really about winning as they are about passing the baton, and the fact that Trump somehow used them to win was always seen as an anomaly, one that should be blamed on outside agitators. Clearly it "should" have been Hillary Clinton or Ted Cruz or maybe Jeb Bush that won. But really all these guys want to do is get 51% of the vote, so basically to get as far as possible from what they promised so that they aren't bound by the core mandate to do what they said they'd do and no one can really hold them to account.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 21 Dec 2004, 23:53
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Philosophized
Post 24 Aug 2020, 01:21
I've been saying this year has been dynamic for the past few months.. Don't think the word is strong enough anymore. Chaotic might be more appropriate.

At this point I say that it is to early to call being three months outside of the elections. Heard on the radio that 56% of Biden voters are voting for him because he is not Trump. Meanwhile Republicans have a ridiculous high approval rating of Trump (90-95& approval rating). I want to say the progressive wing of the Democratic Party got nothing from the Sanders campaign in the end. The Democratic Party is running with centrist Republicans on a straight anti-Trump platform. They are portraying themselves as the ultimate establishment. Something that Trump will point out. Like Biden's pro-segregationist past (that his VP called him out on), how violence against BLM movement occurs in Democratic controlled cities or that the Democrats aren't proposing a damn thing.

With all that in the books (in addition to what soviet78 said) I think the election will be close. The idea of a Blue Wave coming isn't likely.
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"By what standard of morality can the violence used by a slave to break his chains be considered the same as the violence of a slave master?" - Walter Rodney
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 07 Nov 2020, 20:32
Wow, boy was I wrong. How embarrassing.

Red Rebel, the way you put it seems indeed to have been the way it's come to pass - close election with no Blue wave anywhere in sight (in fact I read that the corporate Dems have already gotten into a flamewar with the 'progressive' wing of the party on who's to blame).

I really think it can't be ruled out that there was some funny business involving mail-in ballots, plus issues with election observers in some cities, and it's kind of hilarious to me that almost no media is covering it, or even going out of its way to fact-check suppress evidence of potential wrong-doing. Some of the issues (like kicking people out of counting rooms and putting up barriers to prevent people from peaking inside) kind of remind me of Russia's elections, actually.

My fears now are two-fold: that a) there may be civil unrest - I've already read comments online like 'First they stole the election from Trump, and now they're going to come for us and our children'. That kind of fear-based logic can lead to violence real quick. And b) Biden is going to step on the accelerator of anti-Russia hysteria. Trump wasn't 'good' for Russia, to be sure, pulling out of strategic arms treaties left and right and introducing new sanctions, etc. But Biden and the Dems have an ideological reason to step up the attack. Meanwhile Moscow's spent the last four years of the Trump clownshow in Washington twiddling its thumbs and making almost no preparations that I could discern for a potential escalation of sanctions and other pressures.

Also, say what you will about Trump, but at least he hasn't started any more US wars. Who was the last US president who could say the same thing? Carter, 40 years ago? I fear the neoliberal puppetmasters behind Biden may not be so generous, and that some more black and brown people or Slavs in some god forsaken country will have to pay the price again.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 21 Dec 2004, 23:53
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Philosophized
Post 10 Nov 2020, 05:27
The United States doesn't have national laws on voting. Each state does. Going down that rabbit hole, Pennsylvania has 67 counties (the largest being Philadelphia). Each county is divided into school districts. My county has 14 school districts. My school district consists of 4 townships/boroughs. Each township/borough has their own voting laws. So in my county outside Philadelphia (~200,000 folks voted) there are 77 different townships/borough laws on voting. This would affect what is on the ballot, how you could vote, laws for poll watchers, vote counters, ect.

Every election it is mentioned (briefly) how difficult it is to have foreign observers watching the polls in the United States because each municipality has different laws. i.e. one township might allow observers within 25 feet of voting, 50 feet or might not be allowed into the same room as voting. A potential result is that an observer could be removed from the premise. If I understand Philadelphia's laws correctly, one democrat & one republican could observe the counting of votes. Some Republicans are getting pissy because more of them weren't allowed in to watch the count. I've heard of a half dozen accounts, from the greater Philadelphia region, of armed Trump supporters demanding they be allowed in to watch the counting. In some cases they were allowed in; however in others (Philadelphia) they were not.

For some states this was their first time using mail in ballots. Pennsylvania was not one of them. My parents anniversary is around election day and they've frequently applied for mail in ballots in previous years due to travelling.

The bigger issue (that Republicans & Democrats) are not talking about is the racist nature of voter disenfranchisement in the United States. Poll places closing in poorer communities, folks being removed from voter registration (you are not automatically registered to vote in the USA), not allowing convicted felons to vote, rumors of fraud from predominantly black areas (Philadelphia, Detroit). There is voter suppression & disenfranchisement in the United States. It is just disproportionately against poor non-white folks. This is also all within the confines of the undemocratic electoral college with gives more representation (historically) to land owning whites.

I do believe both your fears are well founded. Domestically the situations hasn't imploded. As of right now (this could change), I don't see the establishment Republicans breaking with USA bourgeois democracy for Trump. They dominated the legal system with judicial appointments, still control the senate & Biden (politics aside) is not going to push a liberal (let alone progressive agenda). The Republican establishment can wait four years and have a go at retaking the presidency. As of right now, I don't see them risking civil unrest for Trump's ego. 1. They aren't at risk of losing much. 2. Trump hasn't given any proof of voter fraud. His supporters might buy it but I don't see powerful Republicans flocking to that banner unless it could be plausible or winnable.

On the foreign front, there is some good news. The USA president is the CEO of American capitalism. Imperialism is not a policy choice and doesn't change with a president. Trump made some NATO allies uncomfortable before American generals reassured NATO of the United States commitment to NATO. In the broader picture, USA imperialism isn't looking that great. ~20 years in Afghanistan and we're slowly accepting that the Taliban will need to have a role in the governance. Iraq has been a disaster build a on lies. Libya can only be viewed a success if the goal was the removal of Gaddafi and the threat of pan-Africanism. If the goal was establishment of a client state, that was a failure. Syria has been an embarrassment to Obama & Trump. Assassinating Soleimani did nothing for the United State's interests in the region. When was the last time a foreign power attacked the United States, took responsibility and the Empire stood down? WW2? There has been a continuation of failure in overthrowing the Bolivarian Revolution (Guaido & the Bay of Piglets). The overthrow of the pink tide in Latin America is being stopped and/or overturned (most recently in Bolivia). The trade war against China hasn't achieved any of the United State's goals for starting the trade war. All in all there hasn't been a lot of success. I agree there is a growing threat of great power conflict which a Biden administration will be better poised to carry out. Even still, the United States isn't the same power it was at the turn of the 21st century.
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"By what standard of morality can the violence used by a slave to break his chains be considered the same as the violence of a slave master?" - Walter Rodney
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
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Post 11 Nov 2020, 21:58
Red Rebel wrote:
The United States doesn't have national laws on voting. Each state does. Going down that rabbit hole, Pennsylvania has 67 counties (the largest being Philadelphia). Each county is divided into school districts. My county has 14 school districts. My school district consists of 4 townships/boroughs. Each township/borough has their own voting laws. So in my county outside Philadelphia (~200,000 folks voted) there are 77 different townships/borough laws on voting. This would affect what is on the ballot, how you could vote, laws for poll watchers, vote counters, ect.


That's kind of assuring I guess, in the sense that it means less chance of fraud, since very few ordinary people at the local level would be willing to pull off large-scale election cheating, no matter their political affiliation. That's actually one good thing that can be said about American bourgeois democracy when compared with Russia, where we never seem to have developed that kind of culture of general honesty and trust.

Red Rebel wrote:
My parents anniversary is around election day and they've frequently applied for mail in ballots in previous years due to travelling.


Is it correct to say that mail-in ballots are different from absentee ballots? From what I've read, and from everything Trump's been yelling about, absentee ballots are supposed to be 'more secure'? It's these mail-in ballots in strategic locations that the Republicans are claiming the mass fraud is easier to pull off with. Again, not to compare America to Russia, but we has a vote on amendments to the constitution this summer in which some of the problems I'm hearing about now (large numbers of ballots floating around all over, claims of people 'being instructed on how to vote', sudden shifts in data on returns in media coverage etc.) featured prominently. I guess one can listen to pro-Trump people's claims too much about it. Also I think for me the fact that media and the big internet companies -Twitter, Facebook, Google are willing to just literally cut away from Trump and cover up his tweets automatically makes him seem more sympathetic, because these same companies have been known to censor leftist and independent media and personalities without warning for years now.

Good point about Republicans throwing Trump overboard. Most of them never really liked it when he took over their party in 2016 anyway. The trouble is if he tries to return in 2024 and frag up their shit again, assuming he's still alive and spry enough to run again.

I agree with you about US imperialism's misadventures and its implications for its ability to project power/threats. The lack of a response to the January 2020 Iranian missile strikes on US bases in response to Soleimani's killing continues to astound me. Still I think Trump's ability to divide allies and distract the body politic at home had its benefits for the world. The more united NATO is, the worse things will get for everyone else. I just hope the diverging economic interests between the US and its allies will be enough to prevent the reemergence of a Western Leviathan like the one that existed in the 90s.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 12 Nov 2020, 00:44
"Leftists" defending Biden's legitimacy has undoubtedly been the stupidest part of this. I guess they've been had and are now nothing more than just militant wing of the Democratic party with no actual agenda of their own besides idpol trash. I guess good on Obama for figuring this out.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
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Post 17 Nov 2020, 22:12
Kirov wrote:
"Leftists" defending Biden's legitimacy has undoubtedly been the stupidest part of this. I guess they've been had and are now nothing more than just militant wing of the Democratic party with no actual agenda of their own besides idpol trash. I guess good on Obama for figuring this out.


You know I think I've been watching too much Jimmy Dore. I was 100% that the Bernie Bros would stay home after their candidate was robbed a second time. I guess enough of them came out to vote Biden anyway. In fact he's supposedly received more votes than any candidate in US history, which sounds *ahem* kind of absurd, but maybe I underestimated how divisive/hated Trump is in Democratic states and cities.

Kirov wrote:
with no actual agenda of their own besides idpol trash


Agreed 100%.

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Honestly guys the more days go by the more I fear Trump leaving the White House means there's gonna be some major new war somewhere. I mean I know Trump is a prick for sanctioning everyone, and standing by quietly while the Saudis genocide Yemen. But Biden... the guy's thinking of making Susan Rice his secretary of state. The same Susan Rice that a) cheerled Libya b) proposed bombing Syria over 'chemical weapons' c) literally was in the room when Obama and Biden kicked off Russiagate. I'm hearing the term 'Dark Winter' thrown around a lot in the US right now. Maybe this is a misapplication of the term, but it seems like we're going to have a dark winter indeed over the next four years.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 18 Nov 2020, 12:31
From what I understand, at least reading Hillary Clinton's recent Foreign Affairs article, Trump has permanently changed the focus to China and US economic sustainability. I think US relations with Russia right now are so bad that the US has little to no leverage in this, which is why she only talks about renewing strategic nuclear stability treaties (a good thing) and not particular crises, such as the Middle East.

But for all the talk of the value of the US' alliances, it looks like the writing is on the wall that this is a reaction to overall decline of the US globally and it having to dig in to retain its power, and this is the one clear advantage it has and should use. That being said, I don't really understand why Russia is building new military facilities, for example the one in Sudan, particularly when Russia easily let go of ones in Cuba and Vietnam 20 years ago.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 12 Jun 2006, 02:14
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Politburo
Post 19 Nov 2020, 16:19
soviet78 wrote:
You know I think I've been watching too much Jimmy Dore. I was 100% that the Bernie Bros would stay home after their candidate was robbed a second time. I guess enough of them came out to vote Biden anyway. In fact he's supposedly received more votes than any candidate in US history, which sounds *ahem* kind of absurd, but maybe I underestimated how divisive/hated Trump is in Democratic states and cities.

Indeed he is, and Trump is the second most voted candidate. That's how crazy US politics are.

soviet78 wrote:
Honestly guys the more days go by the more I fear Trump leaving the White House means there's gonna be some major new war somewhere. I mean I know Trump is a prick for sanctioning everyone, and standing by quietly while the Saudis genocide Yemen. But Biden... the guy's thinking of making Susan Rice his secretary of state. The same Susan Rice that a) cheerled Libya b) proposed bombing Syria over 'chemical weapons' c) literally was in the room when Obama and Biden kicked off Russiagate. I'm hearing the term 'Dark Winter' thrown around a lot in the US right now. Maybe this is a misapplication of the term, but it seems like we're going to have a dark winter indeed over the next four years.

And here I fear for Venezuela. Russia and China are too big to take head on, unless you're wishing for nuclear holocaust. Iran is big enough to make it a horrible long war that may indeed be lost (again) by the US. So Venezuela is actually the one place close and weak enough for Biden to get a quick beneficial war with less resistance.
Unless Russia and China actually want to step up, because the region is still years away from a possible common defense.


"Where Argentina goes, Latin America will go".
Leonid Brezhnev

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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 26 Jun 2006, 02:51
Embalmed
Post 23 Nov 2020, 14:10
Quote:
You know I think I've been watching too much Jimmy Dore. I was 100% that the Bernie Bros would stay home after their candidate was robbed a second time. I guess enough of them came out to vote Biden anyway. In fact he's supposedly received more votes than any candidate in US history, which sounds *ahem* kind of absurd, but maybe I underestimated how divisive/hated Trump is in Democratic states and cities.


the people who are that hard core into bernie (to the point they ignore bernie's post-primary support of clinton and biden and bernie's repeated requests that we vote for those candidates) are a very small number of people. and that small number of people are not necessarily traditional democrat voters; they may be green party voters, non-voters, etc who bernie managed to bring into the party temporarily.

trump, meanwhile, is a racist scumbag who will likely end up being responsible for hundred's of thousands of deaths of US citizen, did policies like family separations, and made subtext blatant by doing things like refusing to condemn white nationalists. on top of that, the things obama did that are not really in line with modern liberal sensibilities like mass deportations or assassination strikes became acceptable to criticize in trump - now that it was no longer "their guy" calling the shots, they could be clearheaded about how bad those actions were. this comes together to create the most hated president in many decades among democratic party voters.

the one thing that's unclear to me is the ongoing impact of trump militarily. at the end of the day, he scaled back US military involvement and avoided getting in any new wars. however, he likely came very close to doing the opposite on a number of occasions and likes to project an image of unpredictability, meaning it can be impossible to tell what's sincere and what's an act. overall I am willing to the last four years of scaled back military involvement compared to what someone like clinton would have done is a good change, but I would not trust trump to continue that for another four years, depending on what actually happens. in the iran situation it was not trump but iran that finally de-escalated - there's no guarantee it will happen the same way next time.

in the end, putting the US war machine in the hands of anyone other than the staunchest anti-imperialist is going to be extremely dangerous. when we discuss these different candidates, we're only discussing gradations of just how dangerous they are.
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