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Trump will be reelected unless...

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Soviet cogitations: 4492
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 19 Aug 2020, 21:08
Hey guys, I just wanted to vent somewhere on what I think's going to happen in November. Based on how things are looking today, I think Trump is going to win a second term, unless he has a major medical emergency or is assassinated.

I base this conclusion on several things:

1) Among all the people the Democrats could have selected to run against him, they picked the guy from Tales from the Cryptkeeper, plus a black woman proud of her record of putting minorities in jail on drug crimes. That can't be good for exciting the base.

2) The coronavirus hasn't given Trump a chance to run Reagan 1984-style 'It's morning again in America' ads, and has illuminated the massive systemic inequalities facing US society, ranging from the threat of mass evictions to more and more people being denied the opportunity to receive proper medical treatment. But again, despite agreeing to spend trillions propping up banks and corporations, the Democrats haven't proposed any big positive changes that independents in the swing states may support at a time of crisis - such as health care, UBI, etc, to set themselves apart from the Republicans.

3) Most national polling gives Biden a 4-10 point lead over Trump https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html . However, in the final days before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton also had a 3-6 point lead and still lost. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5491.html because national polls don't mean anything under an Electoral College system.

4) I think a lot of young potential blue progressive voters are going to stay at home/vote third party again this time due to the shabby way Bernie was treated during early primary voting, and the cringe-worthy way that he ended up endorsing Biden without getting almost any of his major platform issues (health care, student debt) through. This point is admittedly weaker, since if the Democrats did pick Bernie or ran with more of his ideas, the Republicans could have influenced more independents to believe that the Dems want to destroy the country using the socialism bogeyman. They're doing that anyway even now.

5) Unless Trump has a stroke or some other major medical issue, he is going to crush Biden in the debates. Again, the idea of the Democrats picking a senile old man who's visibly suffering from early signs of dementia is an astounding testament to the failure of their system of picking candidates. The fact that Trump is going around bragging about how he 'aced' his mental competency test is pretty hilarious in itself in the sense that it shows the absurdity of the current state of American politics. It's almost like something out of the GTA universe.

6) I think Trump's campaign may try to pull some type of last minute populist move to get undecided/libertarian/progressive voters on their side, like pardoning Snowden, or bringing troops home from some war.

7) I think the coronavirus situation has drowned out this issue, but that whole Hunter Biden Burisma business in Ukraine hasn't really gone anywhere, and there is now alleged audio of his phone conversations with Poroshenko to get the prosecutor investigating Burisma fired. I mean it's not that big a deal in the sense that everybody in politics engages in such corruption. On the other hand, the Democrats did try to impeach Trump for the exact same thing (a quid pro quo). And unlike Biden, Trump's crime was merely trying to dig up dirt on a political rival, not trying to cover up his own family's corrupt dealings.

Instead of fighting Trump on the substantive issues, the Democrats spent three years and all their energy calling him a Russian agent. Today that theory has all but collapsed and you have people from the FBI admitting that they altered evidence to make Trump's people look guilty. In politics there's such a thing as sympathy from the public for a candidate who is perceived as being attacked unfairly. So whether Trump is described as a Kremlin asset or being called 'the most racist president in history' (presumably even more racist than those who owned slaves) I think a huge opportunity was missed to attack him for real shortcomings, like nepotism, corruption, anti-environmentalism, someone that's damaging US alliances, or any one of a hundred other things.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Soviet cogitations: 9387
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 20 Aug 2020, 17:57
I don't think politics in the US is so much about one side "winning" per se as it is about maintaining a certain balance. When something has to be done quickly there is easy bipartisan support for it, like raising smoking age to 21, the war in Iraq, whatever. With something like healthcare reform there is a clear attempt to sabotage the more progressive things like government option because no one in the elite actually wants anything like that.

In that sense, elections in the US aren't really about winning as they are about passing the baton, and the fact that Trump somehow used them to win was always seen as an anomaly, one that should be blamed on outside agitators. Clearly it "should" have been Hillary Clinton or Ted Cruz or maybe Jeb Bush that won. But really all these guys want to do is get 51% of the vote, so basically to get as far as possible from what they promised so that they aren't bound by the core mandate to do what they said they'd do and no one can really hold them to account.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Soviet cogitations: 10792
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 21 Dec 2004, 23:53
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Philosophized
Post 24 Aug 2020, 01:21
I've been saying this year has been dynamic for the past few months.. Don't think the word is strong enough anymore. Chaotic might be more appropriate.

At this point I say that it is to early to call being three months outside of the elections. Heard on the radio that 56% of Biden voters are voting for him because he is not Trump. Meanwhile Republicans have a ridiculous high approval rating of Trump (90-95& approval rating). I want to say the progressive wing of the Democratic Party got nothing from the Sanders campaign in the end. The Democratic Party is running with centrist Republicans on a straight anti-Trump platform. They are portraying themselves as the ultimate establishment. Something that Trump will point out. Like Biden's pro-segregationist past (that his VP called him out on), how violence against BLM movement occurs in Democratic controlled cities or that the Democrats aren't proposing a damn thing.

With all that in the books (in addition to what soviet78 said) I think the election will be close. The idea of a Blue Wave coming isn't likely.
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