Florida v. Cuba.

This was inspired by the Obama Perestroika thread. Simply put, if the Cuban Military and the Floridian National Guard fought, who would win?

Here are the Parameters:

Florida only has the equipment of it's National Guard.

Cuba has the equipment it has now.

Discuss.

What equipment and numbers do the Florida National Guard have?

Florida army national guard has a light infantry brigade of 4000 men, a special forces battalion and various support units. Totaling 10000 men. And Florida air national guard has a squadron of F-15C.

I think that Florida could easily take over Cuba. I think the irony here is that the military in one state of a country, can take on the whole military of another country.

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I think that Florida could easily take over Cuba. I think the irony here is that the military in one state of a country, can take on the whole military of another country.

Okay. But the question now is this: Will they be able to hold on, or will they be drained by Cuban Insurgents?

If we are talking about the National Guard alone, then it is fair to say that the Cubans would win or at least stand a good chance of winning. Florida would certainly not be able to hold onto the island in the long term.

If we are going add forces from the regular armed Forces, then somebody needs to come up with a believable list of what Florida would get. One must remember that when the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia got the lion share of the armed forces while the other former Republics got relatively little. It is logical to think that a similar situation would occur in the U.S.. The larger and economically most powerful states would receive the most most while the smaller and weaker ones, the least.

Which category would Florida fit into?

There's a more important question then that. Does Florida get to mobilize? If they do, and of course a few months to train the inductees, then we could be looking at a force of 10 000 professionals, bolstered by as many as 20 000- 30 000 additional troops. Possibly much more (depending on how much time we give Florida to prepare). Finally the F-15C squadron is the equivalent (in airframes) of a regiment of the Cuban Air Force, and in terms of technological advancement is leagues ahead of the MiG-21s, and quite a bit ahead of the MiG-29S that they fly.

Oh and James Kennedy where did you get info on the air national guard for Florida? Link please.

Wikipedia.

@ TRL: Florida and Cuba both get a month and a half to prepare.

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It is logical to think that a similar situation would occur in the U.S.. The larger and economically most powerful states would receive the most most while the smaller and weaker ones, the least.

Florida would probably fall into the former.

BTW, don't underestimate Cuba, guys. Remember MC '02?

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Red, commanded by retired Marine Corps Lt. General Paul K. Van Riper, used motorcycle messengers to transmit orders to front-line troops, evading Blue's sophisticated electronic surveillance network. They also used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of Blue's ships without being detected. In the early days of the exercise, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles, overwhelming the Blue forces' electronic sensors, destroying sixteen warships. The equivalent of this success in a real conflict would have resulted in the death of over 20,000 servicemen and servicewomen. Soon after that offensive, another significant portion of Blue's navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats carrying out both conventional and suicide attacks, able to engage Blue forces due to Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected.

Imagine what they can do with '21s. ~_^

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BTW, don't underestimate Cuba, guys. Remember MC '02?

No. Could you refresh my memory?

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No. Could you refresh my memory?

Link

I don't remember Cuba has massive volleys of cruise missiles.

Brecher sounds like a real bastard, particularly in other articles. I'm not sure I could like anybody calling them self an "American Nationalist". Anyhow, he makes some good sense in this article and I do like his style of talking about tactics and strategy while playing down the effectiveness of hardware and brute force (in relevant cases of course). Just take this example:

"FRESNO, CA — OK, let’s talk hardware for once. I love the hardware, always have; the reason I don’t talk much about it is that what we’ve got is mostly useless, and what we really do need is always getting slammed. I’ll give you two examples: the F/A-18 and the V-22.

If you’re a typical half-baked Tom Clancy fan, you know what to think of both these planes: F/A-18 good, V-22 bad. Wrong on both counts. In fact, that’s why it’s hard to talk hardware, because you have to de-program so much crap from the standard view." (emphasis mine)

So true, and on much more than just military matters. Honestly, I like the way this guy thinks in a lot of ways. It's too bad he backs the other team.

Back on topic:

The article makes a good point. You can't rely on having superior technology in order to win a war. Sure it helps but, a bigger and more powerful army won't necessarily win against a smaller, less powerful one. There are several examples in only the last century that prove this. Brecher wastes no time in pointing some of them out.

If the Cubans fight America (or in this case Florida) at its own game, they'll lose and probably lose badly. If they use some cunning tactics like van Riper did, they may stand a chance. Judging by their past, I would suggest they'll go with the latter.

One of my lecturers at uni reckons that military intelligence are two words which don't go together very well. If people like van Riper are the exception and not the rule, he's probably right.

Allowing Cuba's allies to get involved seems to necessitate allowing Florida's allies to get involved, namely the neighboring states at the least.

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Outside of those ancient Soviet ICBM's that are still there, there must be some other reason to deter a direct invasion.

What Soviet ICBMs? They were dismantled as far as I know, and render inoperational.

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Imagine what they can do with '21s. ~_^

Nothing.

The assymetric warfare idea of the '02 wargames is based around a very different premise. It's dealing with a militarized but low tech opponent. And the fact that both sides were commanded by American officers with an excellent military education, and lots of practical experience in one of the most actively deployed militaries in the world, as opposed to poorly trained insurgents with incapable officers, or Cuban conscripts, is only the first of many distinctions between the '02 wargames and real life.

Let me underline that Cuba does not have loads and loads of ASMs or cruise missiles. Nor does Cuba practice the Soviet saturation doctrine. Nor has any country ever successfully in wartime executed a saturation strike in modern times against a naval task force with a modern IADS. The resources involved in orchestrating what happens requires intel on the US Navy and it's capabilities, that the Red force in the wargame had, but that Cuban officers do not have. I doubt that even Russia, which has all the gear needed for multiple saturation strikes, would be able to orchestrate and pull off more then a single saturation strike. Remember that saturation requires ASMs, usually with maritime strike capabilities to deliver them (honestly there is not going to be a super carrier parked next to Cuba, they will use air bases on the continent), significant maritime recon capabilities (again rather lacking in Cuba), fighter support to escort the strike (those 21's are not going to do much, and the Fulcrums are point air-defense, using them as escorts is not fun). Finally all of those assets need to operate in concern. This requires regular and large scale exercises (for example ones like the Russian Stability-2008) to keep the troops sharp and well trained. None of that is present.

i'd have to say cuba would attack, florida would run out of ammo, run to the national guard for help, and then let the U.S. nuke the crap out of cuba. cuba isn't as strong of a country as it was in the 50's. back then, they had a lot of power in their hands.

Lets say the US dissolved into a bunch of break away republics, I believe Florida would get the lion share of the military equipment in its territory, some what similar to the Ukraine. Florida has numerous Army reserve, Marine Reserve, National guard, air Force, Naval air stations, a Marine Logistics base, and A couple of carriers home ported at Mayport (possibly the new Bush carrier). Central command and Special operations command are in Florida. THese two commands have the best and brighest minds in the military, if they retained the men in these commands The Republic of Florida's command and control capabilties would be top notch. Cuba's military command proably has a some veterans from Africa and some brush wars in South America. I think they would lack the experince when compared to their adversaries.
We will say that the Republic of Florida is a fascist government bent on the Liberation of the Cuban people. THe republic would set up a Government in exile selected from trustworthy exiles. Then they would create a A Cuban National Liberation Army, something like what the Nazis did with Vlasov. The support of the exile community would likely help during the occupation of Cuba. I belive that Floridas military might would easily overwhelm Cuba, even with Venezuela intervention.