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How is Donbass today?

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Soviet cogitations: 1494
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
Party Member
Post 13 Jan 2022, 14:21
Kirov wrote:
...and announced a new economic policy that is, in essence, taking the assets of the Nazarbayev family and reapportioning them to others.

I heard that most of these people’s money is abroad. If that’s the case, I don’t think there’s going to be much redistributing going on.


Back to Ukraine. Can anyone here tell me what the hell is Putin thinking? When directly asked if he’ll invade Ukraine, he said that he’ll do whatever it takes to ensure Russia’s security. What does that mean exactly? Most of the military build up has been around the Donbass, but there’s also a smaller build up to the north not far from Kiev. I can’t imagine him to be making indirect empty threats, because no one will take him seriously later on if he doesn’t follow through.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 13 Jan 2022, 18:11
Quote:
I heard that most of these people’s money is abroad. If that’s the case, I don’t think there’s going to be much redistributing going on.


Their wealth is more of derivative of the endowment that is the economy of Kazakhstan, so getting that rug pulled from under them would be pretty damaging, it's not like they'll be able to make any money in London without a constant influx of money from Kazakhstan.

Of course, this is all still up to negotiation, we will see in coming weeks.

Also Nursultan Nazarbayev is still gone, many people now are theorizing that maybe he is braindead/in a coma, which is why this whole thing began in Almaty.

Quote:
Can anyone here tell me what the hell is Putin thinking?


No.


I don't know, from the finality of it all maybe he is building a political legacy, but it seems more like things in Russia-US relations really reached an impasse and this demonstrates that things are at a breaking point. To think, it seems somewhat similar to the way the Soviet Union held an ax ready to swing over Western Europe. Maybe this will lead to a detente of sorts, or someone cracks and things only get worse, I don't think it's possible to tell.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Soviet cogitations: 4535
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 13 Jan 2022, 18:30
Yeqon wrote:
Back to Ukraine. Can anyone here tell me what the hell is Putin thinking? When directly asked if he’ll invade Ukraine, he said that he’ll do whatever it takes to ensure Russia’s security. What does that mean exactly? Most of the military build up has been around the Donbass, but there’s also a smaller build up to the north not far from Kiev. I can’t imagine him to be making indirect empty threats, because no one will take him seriously later on if he doesn’t follow through.


I think it's meant as a vague threat to make Kiev aware that it shouldn't try to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine by force - either by its own volition or with NATO's help and maybe under pressure from NATO (remember, Zelensky came in on a platform of seeking to end the war).

Also it's about NATO. Like I said I think Russia's logic is pretty simple, even if it is cruelly Machiavellian - either get a neutral, decentralized Ukraine that's not in NATO, or keep Kiev in a permanent state of frozen conflict with Donbass, thus barring it from joining under the alliance's 'no internal conflicts/claims on other territories' rules.

Regarding Russia's military buildups, I don't know what the narrative is like in Ukraine's media space, but in Russia the claims oscillate between 'there is no buildup' and 'no one will dictate where Russia moves its troops around on its own territory'. The 100,000 figure being thrown around is kind of absurd to me, since the Russian army is 900,000 strong and the idea that there are just 100,000 near one of potentially the most sensitive directions in the west doesn't sound odd to me militarily. I've read op-eds asking something along the lines of 'where should the troops be stationed - in Siberia?'

By the way one of the voices of reason whose comments I've been monitoring seems to be this guy - the chief of Ukraine's defence council:

https://fakty.com.ua/ua/ukraine/polituk ... o-danilov/

He said recently that there are about 122,000 Russian troops that could be considered 'near' the border, but there was no evidence of a buildup for an invasion, and that three, four or even five times that number would be needed for an attack. He has also said repeatedly in recent months that he considers Western media evaluations of the buildup to be hysterical. Case in point: late last year Politico did a piece on a 'Russian troop buildup near Ukraine' only to post satellite photos of Russian armor in Smolensk region - more than 250 km away. I mean if they were stationed in Belgorod, one hour from Kharkov, ok that's a buildup, but 250 km away... Seems unreasonable to call it such to me.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
Ideology: Democratic Socialism
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Post 14 Jan 2022, 23:46
Yeah, I’m probably being paranoid and stressed out and you guys are making a lot of sense. I’ll say one thing though, if the west continues to move east on the basis that independent countries have the right to seek their own military alliances, then they sure as shit shouldn’t complain when Russia or China start placing big fuсkin’ rockets in Cuba and other countries of the western hemisphere.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Jul 2006, 04:49
Ideology: Juche
Old Bolshevik
Post 15 Jan 2022, 07:19
I know that I'm late to this but I disagree the events in Kazakhstan were a color revolution or a coup attempt, at least at the beginning. It seems to be more like the uprising in Egypt. The Maidan was very explicitly anti-Soviet and pro-fascist and pro-NATO from the very beginning. From what I'm seeing, the Left in Kazakhstan is supporting the protests, unlike the Ukraine, where the Left opposed the Maidan. From what I've seen, there weren't reactionary symbols being displayed, like in Belarus or Libya or explicit calls for intervention, like Hong Kong and Myanmar.
Here is an interview from the KKE
Ben Norton's take on this.
"Before they launch missiles, they launch narratives. Before they drop bombs, they drop propaganda. "
-- Caitlin Johnstone
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 15 Jan 2022, 12:16
Again, I don't think anyone doubts that the fuel price protests were genuine, it's the pogroms and violence afterwards that are questionable. As for symbols, there were no symbols at all except for some national flags. Most of the people doing the looting were "Mambets," the Central Asian equivalent of gopnik. They had some coordinators but mostly it seemed like people of the petty crime and manual labor variety. In that sense it is similar to Arab Spring, Kazakhstan's population doubled in the past 30 years yet the government hasn't provided any path in life for these people except hanging out at markets pushing carts and carrying bags of cement. It also has discouraged them from going abroad for work like people in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan because of its long term goal of politically minimizing the Russian population. But the postcolonial reality there is that where there are Russians there are jobs so it's quite tricky.

So there is really no political conflict, the government is already very nationalist, Islamism isn't popular, Turkey's influence is limited, the only thing really at stake is what group of people is in power.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 15 Jan 2022, 15:56
I agree with Kirov's take on this basically. The first few days based on the information provided I did think it to be a genuine popular uprising, but as time went on it became kind of clear that people's righteous anger was being taken advantage of by competing political centers - between upstart Tokayev and the Nazarbayev legacy elite, plus bandit groups. I don't even think it was a proper color revolution attempt - afaik the imperialist powers are satisfied with the situation under which they could plunder Kazakhstan under its current authorities. Also I don't see a Turkish trace here, despite always looking for one based on Turkey's activity in the region.

The ODKB intervention scared me because I was worried about the prospect of Russian troops being filmed beating up on protesters/rioters, and this causing a wave of anti-Russian anger, but thankfully that never happened and they're leaving now. Basically I think the whole point of their intervention was just for Tokayev to scare those seeking to destabilize the situation by saying 'hey see these ODKB troops, yeah they're on my side.'

...

By the way Misuzu, the Left in Ukraine were divided when Maidan first began, with some supporting it because the catalyst for the protests was and remains the same everywhere in the post-Soviet space -corruption and poverty. Unfortunately, I think those forces that did support it quickly came to regret it given the decommunization and general terror against Leftists that has occurred since. I think the situation in Kazakhstan is pretty similar - with the Left there being surprisingly tiny to begin with (I think also because of nationalist anti-Sovietism being very prevalent in Kazakhstan's political life). Based on my observations, the Russian Left has been divided and has engaged in debate over these events and their implications for Russia.

Sources on the Left in Maidan (I think Google Translate works pretty great): http://rabkor.ru/columns/left/2015/02/1 ... er-maidan/ https://rusplt.ru/society/education/wor ... 11160.html https://liva.com.ua/maidan-lefts.html

Good source of info on the situation in Kazakhstan from a Leftist perspective: https://vk.com/red_yurt (check out the comments especially -I think they are sometimes more informative than the posts themselves).
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 18 Jan 2022, 15:04
Nazarbayev spoke on TV today

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qje8CCkQBMs

Basically resigns all power to Tokayev, announces that he will assume the position of party leader soon. Also refers to Nur-Sultan as "the capital of Kazakhstan," the term that is used now instead of Nur-Sultan. So I guess it's over and all power has been transferred to Tokayev.

Also speaking of Sometimes They Come Back, Poroshenko returned to Ukraine in a weird reprise of the Navalny (and Saakashvili) situations last year, except he wasn't arrested despite officially being on a wanted list.
From what I understand, he will be sentenced to house arrest, which he probably won't respect.

I'm still addicted to following what is going on, I guess, things like this are somewhat funny/ridiculous.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 19 Jan 2022, 04:36
Another interesting factoid about Kazakhstan. Per capita it extracts 25% more oil and gas than Russia, yet wages are 30% lower, and in the extraction sector even lower than that. A Kazakh oil/gas worker makes on average 82000 rubles a month (472000 tenge)[1] while a Russian oil worker makes on average 152000 rubles per month[2]. There is really no difference that I can otherwise see in the countries' extraction sectors except that Kazakhstan's is more plentiful but owned mostly by Chevron, Exxon, European and Chinese interests.

So I guess it does matter who owns the capital, a national bourgeoisie or a global one. I think had things been different, Russia would see a similar gopnification of the populace, particularly in the rapidly developing southern cities - Rostov, Krasnodar, Sochi, and a similar demographic time bomb.

---

On Ukraine, Russia is in Belarus now too, or at least has given the order to shuttle its military vehicles all over the country's railroads to get more tiktok videos made.

What it looks like to me now, is that the intermediate goal is to reach a settlement on NATO with the Americans and the more long-term is to force Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements that the sanctions against Russia are for some reason linked to.

The bigger problem with this is who will be implementing them - probably not the almost completely useless former Regions party, aka business interests of Eastern Ukraine, so the choice will probably fall on Poroshenko or Zelensky - or maybe both.

It must be pretty uncomfortable to be a Ukrainian right now though, where the political elite can do absolutely nothing about your standard of living and lives in a disconnected reality of manufactured political crises, your country's future is being decided by other countries that don't care about your personal future at all, and your house may get bombed tomorrow and there's nothing you can do about it. But it's some kind of lesson for others, I guess.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 29 Sep 2011, 13:51
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Post 19 Jan 2022, 13:31
Kirov wrote:
It must be pretty uncomfortable to be a Ukrainian right now though, where the political elite can do absolutely nothing about your standard of living and lives in a disconnected reality of manufactured political crises, your country's future is being decided by other countries that don't care about your personal future at all, and your house may get bombed tomorrow and there's nothing you can do about it.

Ain't that the god damned truth.
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The great art of life is sensation, to feel that you exist, even in pain.
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 20 Jan 2022, 13:27
Quote:
Oscar B (@Brophyst)
UVB-76 (The Buzzer) is a numbers station run by the russians since 1981. Its used to organize covert ops and military movements. Changes correspond to Rus. millitary action - like during 2014 crimea annex. Yesterday it was playing Gangam Style and sending spectrogram Troll Faces


https://twitter.com/mussyu226/status/14 ... 7264198656

Image


There's something really postmodern about memes from 10 years ago prefacing this whole thing
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 12 Jun 2011, 15:14
Ideology: Other Leftist
Komsomol
Post 24 Jan 2022, 21:44
Kirov wrote:
UVB-76 (The Buzzer) is a numbers station run by the russians since 1981. Its used to organize covert ops and military movements. Changes correspond to Rus. millitary action - like during 2014 crimea annex. Yesterday it was playing Gangam Style and sending spectrogram Troll Faces

https://twitter.com/mussyu226/status/14 ... 7264198656

Image


There's something really postmodern about memes from 10 years ago prefacing this whole thing

I have heard of this station , mentioned on various YouTube videos , such as these . People around the world, especially in the United States , have been fascinated by what it might all mean. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yxWwBaleuhM https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JbfG-0plMns
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Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 19 Mar 2005, 20:08
Embalmed
Post 27 Jan 2022, 12:58
I guess things are moving along so I can make some predictions:

1. Ukraine is perceived by the Russian leadership as "anti-Russia" or something that is built on the complete negation of Russia. Because of this it has moved from what it was formerly, a post-colonial cultural autonomy (Soviet republic) that became a country, into a very different form. Something like the GDR in reverse, a security perimeter for the West to neutralize Russia's position. But also if the GDR was called Prussia and said at every moment that German identity is fake.

2. However, instead of neutralization, it poses an existential threat, because of these antipodes there can only be one.

3. Therefore there are several ways out of this, all of which involve a reformatting of the global order:

A) The current negotiations lead to the US dropping Ukraine, Minsk agreements go through, situation stabilizes, Ukraine returns to Russian sphere of influence on a renewed Union Agreement like the one planned in 1991 for post-USSR. End result is an EU-like ex-USSR positioned more neutrally toward China which now has a weaker hand to play in its faceoff with the West.

B) the current negotiations lead to deadlock, Russia acts on its warnings and takes over Ukraine. Pretty much the same follow up but "sanctions from hell" weaponize the very idea of technology, resources, trade, China seizes Taiwan and uses technology access to turn ex-USSR into a personal North Korea but 200-300 million strong and with nuclear triad technology. Iranian influence grows in Central Asia and Caucasus. Turkey gets rich off being the east-west conduit. Probably war again in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan because of these contradictions. Chinese century.

C) Russia backs down and enters internal crisis, declines steadily over next 2 decades as US faces off against China not distracted by the situation in Europe.

4. Basically, right now the difference in US and Russian position is that the US thinks it's a choice between A and C, and B is a bluff. Russia thinks it's a choice between A and B, and C is civilizational failure.

5. Over the next few weeks we will see actions that make it clear that only options A and B are viable and see the result.
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"Bleh, i don't even know what i'm arguing for. What a stupid rant. Disregard what i wrote." - Loz
"Every time is gyros time" - Stalinista
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Soviet cogitations: 4535
Defected to the U.S.S.R.: 07 Oct 2004, 22:04
Ideology: Marxism-Leninism
Resident Soviet
Post 27 Jan 2022, 22:29
I don't think Russia will invade. I may be wrongб but I think Russia might recognize the Donbass republics diplomatically - with all the maneuvers on the border being a message to Kiev not to attack them immediately after recognition. That's why they gave this security proposals ultimatum. I mean no one in their right minds seriously believed that the West would back down based on the Russian proposals, but I just can't think of any other alternative reason for Russia to formally ask for an in-writing rejection from the US and NATO like that. Russia can't put bases or missiles in Cuba (in Venezuela maybe but that's hugely risky). What other options are there? A Dr. Strangelove style doomsday machine? Apart from recognizing LNR and DNR I can't think of anything.

The thing is, Russia has enough problems to deal with at home, chief among them demographics and crumbling of economic and social infrastructure, plus the massive corruption. If it invaded Ukraine Ukrainians would never forgive Russians, just like many Czechoslovaks never forgave the Soviets after 1968, or he Poles hundreds of years ago after Russia crushed their own imperial dreams.

Also, if Russia invaded, what would happen to the money of all our oligarchs, and all the liberals in the government? I mean I know the oligarchs are not as politically powerful individually as they were in the 1990s, but collectively it can't be that Putin can just ignore their interests, all their homes, villas, bank accounts and families in the UK, Italy, New York and Miami. They might try something in Russia if they feel threatened enough. They don't want to live here; they don't want to ride around in Russian cars instead of Bentleys and BMWs. They don't want their kids going to school here. They've invested too much attention and capital into the West over the past 30 years.
"The thing about capitalism is that it sounds awful on paper and is horrendous in practice. Communism sounds wonderful on paper and when it was put into practice it was done pretty well for what they had to work with." -MiG
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