Bolivarian Revolution (The New Sub-Subforum of Venezuela)

Because even if a small number of votes had been tampered with ( which is not that unlikely ) then the elections can be called invalid.
Were there int. observers at the polls?
What did they say about the transparency of Ven. elections?

There were many observers form UNASUR, OEA (OAS), the Carter center, etc. They all approved of the election.
The voting system has been audited 3 times during the election. And now they're going to audit all the ballot boxes.

The curious thing is that Capriles doubt the election when they lose, but not when he wins. He got elected governor on the December elections and won with a difference of less than 50.000 votes.

soviet78 wrote:

How could the victory have been so narrow? Was it really due to Chavez' charisma alone?

Alan Woods wrote about this in Reformism or Revolution. He speculated that keeping the masses mobilized (without taking control of the state and smashing the previous one) would negatively affect the masses. You saw this throughout Chavez's tenure, each election was won with a lesser margin. And eventually a loss (changing the constitution).

Che wrote:

The voting system has been audited 3 times during the election. And now they're going to audit all the ballot boxes.

iirc 50-55% of the ballots were audited during the election day (venezuela analysis?). Apparently this is a high number compared to other democratic states. I'll try and dig up the source later.

@soviet78, this might answer some of your questions on why the victory was narrower: Understanding the Venezuelan Presidential Election Outcome.

Also a link for the ballots audited on election day: A random audit of 54 percent of the votes is routinely conducted immediately after the polls close on election day, and was done without any discrepancies on Sunday evening.

So... anyone's been following the recent coup attempt in Caracas?

The president of the National Assembly, which doesn't work because it's in contempt of the Supreme Court for not repeating the election of three deputies who were elected by fraud, declared himself President. He says Maduro is not the legal president because the elections in May were not legal (?), even though some part of the opposition took part in it. Actually, most of the opposition just refused to participate.

Of course, Trump, Trudeau, Bolsonaro, Macri and the usual lackeys recognized Guaido as the new president. China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Bolivia, Mexico, Uruguay and most countries in Africa and Asia recognize Maduro as president.

Maduro replied Trump by giving 72hs for all diplomats and personnel of the USA to leave the country. Pompeo replied he's not the legal president so he won't abide. And now... we'll see how it goes.

I'm feeling kind of demoralized on Venezuela Che. Like waking up in the morning and expecting the military to coup Maduro and install this Guaido guy. Is there any cause for optimism at all that the government will survive?

I mean Russia has been unusually vocal in condemning US interference (maybe it's all those oil concessions and weapons contracts) but if push comes to shove there's no way we're going to seriously support Caracas, based on previous experience.

Well, the fate of the government really lies on the military. They're the deciding factor.

So far, the coup has failed because all the military has sided with Maduro. Guaidó has no one behind him. He's a "president in charge" with no ministers, no courts of law, no police, no armed forces, no mayors, no governors... nothing but twitter and the support of the Washingtong allies.

The brazilian vice president, Mourao, who used to claim that Brazil will be leading the international intervention once the coup starts (he said that in December), now says that Brazil will not support any kind of intervention. Either he's lying through his teeth or they won't move without local military support.

Colombia's president Duque, sworn enemy of Maduro and apprentice of Uribe, has said he's not mobilizing his army and that they're more worried about the ELN starting the guerrilla again than whatever happens in Caracas.

An invasion would be a bloodbath, considering the force an equipment of the Venezuelan Army and the 1.600.000 militia members distributed through the country. That's why neither Colombia nor Brazil really want to go in without at least a big part of the local army supporting them.

Diplomatically, the coup was a failure. They couldn't even get half of the OAS (yes, the same OAS that always does what Washington says) to recognize Guaidó. The result was 17 in favour, 18 against. And then the discussion at the UNSC also showed a divided opinion. 12 speakers in favour of Maduro, 10 of Guaidó, and the Dominican Republic somehow neutral.

Russia and China will only support with money, goods and diplomatically. I see it very difficult that they can send troops or anything in case of a military action. Maybe some spetnatz, tops. Iran might try something. They had talked of sending some warships some time ago, but then it'll be the first time the iranians take their ships so far away...

The USA, who doesn't recognize Maduro anymore, is talking to his government to negotiate keeping an interest office instead of an embassy. So... they're really recognizing him.

I have faith that the government will go on. Guaidó still has to do many things before it can be considered a menace. And the armed forces have no reason so far to change sides.

Well that's good to hear. Thanks for the analysis. You don't really get that sort of thing either in US or Russian media, most of whose coverage consists mostly of empty boilerplate.

Well, the russian media could get such analysis if they'd hire me!

Anyway, Venezuela is preparing - or showing how prepared it is - with military exercises. Guaido has done nothing but talking online and calling for a march/revolt next saturday. Let's see how it goes...

soviet78 wrote:

Is there any cause for optimism at all that the government will survive?

Well, it is not like this is the first time the Empire has attacked the Bolivarian Revolution. They have been preparing for the past two decades. Secondly, I don't see the imperialists having much of a stomach for an invasion. Trump (and this might have more to do with his personality) doesn't want to repeat an Iraqi style occupation. Furthermore, the right wing opposition isn't going to take power without serious backing from the US. I could see something along the lines of Libya or Syria happening as one of the worst case scenarios but it depends on how easy Washington believes they can overthrow the government.

Hearing in the media about how the military is key prompted me to re-read (well, skim) an essay on the subject of military/civilian relations by Eric Hobsbawm. The most "dangerous" class in the military tends to be those around the rank of colonel: the generals are more likely to be invested in whatever regime is in place. As we can see at present, the generals are supporting Maduro, but there are consistent sporadic mutinies from officers lower down the ranks. Given that the PSUV have been in power for 20 years now, the generals and their interests are much more entrenched and interwoven with the PSUV remaining in office.

Another thing Hobsbawm points out is that soldiers are not administrators and are often reluctant to take on managing a government directly, and prefer to be kingmakers if they do intervene. The military are unlikely to want to take on dealing with the crisis in Venezuela themselves and probably are not filled with confidence in Guaido.

These points give me some hope. On the other hand, Hobsbawm argues that a military's main concern is maintenance of supply to the army and if US meddling to get rid of Maduro seriously threatens the resources of the army, it could be a game changer. There is also the long history of coups in Latin America.

So now there’s talk of war in the media; of an actual U.S. invasion. Will it ever stop? I honestly am not the most knowledgeable person on the history of the Bolivarian Revolution, but as an Arab/Slav, I know and have felt the consequences of imperialist interventionism. I sincerely hope the same fate does not befall the good people of Venezuela.