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Post 24 Feb 2014, 05:38
Yuriy Ilyin was made Head of the Ukrainian armed forces on February 19, 2014. He had promised Yanukovych that he would crush the protests "like in Israel" - referring to Israel's massive capability of putting down protests with minimal casualties. He also said that he would soon begin anti-terrorist operations. All of this, however, was said before the coup in Kiev.

The role of the Ukrainian military will be instrumental in the coming days and weeks. Should the Ukrainian military intervene, it will avoid a civil war and relieve Russia's insecurities.

I hope the military does go about restoring order in Kiev and the Western territories, and I expect them to recognize the agreement from February 21st, which all oppositional parties are bound to as they agreed to let Yanukovych stay in power until elections before December 2014.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/.premium-1.575987
Last edited by Have at thee on 24 Feb 2014, 05:57, edited 1 time in total.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 05:52
The military can't intervene for risk of units becoming opposed to each other, which would turn protesters vs. police into army unit vs. army unit, i.e. a real civil war. It's apparently for this reason that the government hasn't called in the military (which I assure you would happen in any Western democracy in the world by now if things got as out of hand as they have in Ukraine).
Post 24 Feb 2014, 06:01
soviet78 wrote:
The military can't intervene for risk of units becoming opposed to each other, which would turn protesters vs. police into army unit vs. army unit, i.e. a real civil war. It's apparently for this reason that the government hasn't called in the military (which I assure you would happen in any Western democracy in the world by now if things got as out of hand as they have in Ukraine).


Special Operational troops will not abandon their mission. A limited Ukrainian military involvement will be more than beneficial in ending the crisis.

They do not need to end the protests. The police can handle that with limited coordination with the military. What the Ukrainian military needs to do is go after the Fascist militants.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 06:35
What legal authority do they have to go after the fascists? And what level of support do the fascists really have outside of the country, i.e., in Poland? I can't see Poland getting directly involved, for fear of clashing with Putin. But if it comes to an out and out civil war, I can definitely see Poland backing the pro-Western faction (and calling in NATO support). The incentive to outright annex, or at least install a client state in, Western Ukraine will be too great. I can already see this as the end game, especially as Putin will be maneuvering for an annexation of the Eastern territory.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 06:50
You know, this isn't Turkey or Egypt or even Syria where the military can keep functioning despite massive unrest, Ukraine's army is shit and has been shit for the past 20 years. The protestors have been a greater threat to the army than the other way around, blockading their bases to prevent their leaving for Kiev, looting their armories and in Kiev, actually taking 60+ of them hostage. While I'm sure there's army special forces that can do something, the entire national and regional leadership of the state security service walked off the job and cut the phone lines to their offices, so the acting president and the acting head of the SBU, who doesn't actually have any control over any of the SBU's activity, had to go to Simferopol and tell them not to secede because that's mean.

Also, the protests are pretty over in most places, with the exception of those where large numbers of people are against the new regime.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 07:29
The Ukrainian Special Operation services are still perfectly capable of putting down the Fascist elements.


They have been training for anti-terrorist operations for years now, and this is an example of one in May, 2013.

http://jn1.tv/video/news/kiev-israeli-embassy-hosts-anti-terror-drill.html

If the Fascists are put in their place, I don't doubt that a peaceful end to the crisis can be brokered. This should be a lesson to all Europeans to repress their far-right winged elements.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 08:13
By this point, however, I think the Ukrainian military is going to recognize the new political trend. I doubt that they'll allow Ukraine to join the EU though.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 08:45
The problem with Ukraine is that it's basically a country of two halves, split down the middle between a West that cleaves to Poland (and to the fragging Pope) and an East that (not so coincidentally) contains much of the ancient Russian homeland. In other words, "Ukraine" itself is an artificial construct of 19th century cartography, and cannot be maintained as an entity without outside assistance and supervision.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 13:07
Yeah, they "could" do so much, but they evidently did not and do not want to. Why should they when the president has run away and half his party has defected? A crackdown only makes sense if you can win, or if you can at least say that you were just following orders and protecting the legal authority. This authority has now collapsed, so there is nothing to risk one's neck for. Whereas before Saturday, they were happy to snipe people or kill them in more gruesome ways.

Look at Egypt: there, the military knew that they had the blessing of the US to reinstate Mubarak-ism without Mubarak. So they could just fire into the crowd at will and butcher 600 people in one day. It was effectively political genocide, because it's hard to form a meaningful, organised opposition in the streets when you know that you might be gunned down. This is very much unlike Ukraine, where the sniper fire and police raids may have been brutal, but where the occupation of the square and of public buildings was allowed for three months straight with impunity. Sure, there was the risk of isolated violence that was at its worst last week, but no state of emergency, no determined attempt to end the occupations, etc.

The Ukrainian military has nothing to say about allowing Ukraine to join the EU. The EU itself will never let Ukraine join the EU under the present circumstances (who knows what the world will look like in 20-40 years). Countries like Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, etc. will never let a shithole like Ukraine join if that means the influx of perhaps millions of immigrants. All the rhetoric to this effect by guys like Verhofstadt is purely meant to bolster the former parliamentary opposition. They need to offer some sort of material incentive for people to vote for them instead of the ongoing breakdown of lawful order with armed goons patrolling the streets and keeping the parliament hostage.
Post 24 Feb 2014, 23:35
I'm glad the Ukranian military does not get involved in the political situation! We don't want a military dictatorship as they are bad things!
Post 25 Feb 2014, 00:11
Yami wrote:
I'm glad the Ukranian military does not get involved in the political situation! We don't want a military dictatorship as they are bad things!


I prefer a military dictatorship to a Fascist dictatorship. I rather live a thousand years in a military dictatorship than a single year in a Fascist one.
Post 25 Feb 2014, 08:17
Sometimes a Stratocracy is the better option.
Post 25 Feb 2014, 11:45
I hate fascist and Stalinist dictatorships, all those in the Ukraine who try to erect either, a plague on both your houses.
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